- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Pirates starting pitcher: Charles Priester
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-185) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 56-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 48-55 ATS.
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Phillies | -1.5 -115 | O 9.5 -120 | -185 |
Pirates | +1.5 -105 | U 9.5 +100 | +150 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 74.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+15.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Ji-man Choi | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Bryce Harper | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Bryce Harper | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Quinn Priester | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 86 games (+13.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games (+12.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 102 games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+5.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 43 away games (+5.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+19.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+13.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+8.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 41-62 against the Run Line (-30 Units / -22.98% ROI).
- 56-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -2.36% ROI
- 40-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.25 Units / -16.06% ROI
- 53-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.3 Units / 8.22% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 48-55 against the Run Line (-21.05 Units / -15.43% ROI).
- 45-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -3.92% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.59% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.8 Units / -9.52% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (139/364) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .186 (301 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 94th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 70% (797/1,144) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (268/863) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 35% of Quinn Priester’s pitches (31/89) over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Quinn Priester has walked 3 of 23 batters (13%) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 5th highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 15% (7/48) against Quinn Priester over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Quinn Priester has a strike rate of just 56% (50/89) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 23-97 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 5-43 (.104) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are just 9-17 (.346) after a road loss this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Phillies are 8-103 (.072) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 89-52 (.631) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Pirates are just 107-157 (.405) since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 102-137 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are just 63-93 (.404) after a loss since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Phillies are batting .259 at home since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (3,042 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .221 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 158 of 2,346 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 952 of 10,177 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
Bet now on Phillies vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
