Phillies vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 29

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Phillies (52-47) are -130 favorites vs the Pirates (40-59)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-3), 5.18 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (3-5), 3.69 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 52-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 51-48 ATS.

Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +125O 8 -105-130
Pirates +1.5 -155U 8 -115+105

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 73.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 39 away games (+16.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+13.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+12.75 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.45 Units / 53% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games at home (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+12.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Diego Castillo 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Greg Allen 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jason Delay 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000

Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Diego Castillo 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Greg Allen 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jason Delay 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Ke'Bryan Hayes 1.5 +175 1.5 -250

Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Diego Castillo 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Greg Allen 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jason Delay 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +150 0.5 -225

Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Quintana 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
Bailey Falter 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 54 of their last 94 games (+12.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+10.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 away games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games at home (+3.25 Units / 21% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 2.41% ROI).

  • 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -2.35% ROI
  • 51-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 2.67% ROI
  • 44-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.95 Units / -10.94% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -2.91% ROI).

  • 40-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -2.56% ROI
  • 41-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -14.34% ROI
  • 52-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 6.24% ROI

Opponents are hitting .383 (18-for-47) against Bailey Falter’s low curves and sliders since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .175 — 0 Percentile.

Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (63 Total Bases / 151 ABs) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .273 — first Percentile.

Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .508 (132 Total Bases / 260 ABs) since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .372 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (20/51) against Bailey Falter on breaking pitches since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (294/580) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Jose Quintana has allowed an OPS of .912 (203 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .623 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .324 (61-for-188) against Jose Quintana versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .220 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .330 (66-for-200) against Jose Quintana versus the bottom of the order since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .219 — 0 Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Phillies are 10-35 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are just 7-20 (.259) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Pirates are just 15-51 (.227) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 29-6 (.829) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Pirates are just 35-5 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 364 of their 1,516 plate appearances (24%) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.

Phillies hitters have drawn 31 walks in 605 PA’s (5%) against RHP this month (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .305 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (2,373 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH since the start of last season (6,289 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies pitchers have walked 149 of 2,307 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 213 of 2,271 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 272 of 2,787 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 18 of 337 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 951 of 9,960 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.