- The Phillies (52-47) are -130 favorites vs the Pirates (40-59)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-3), 5.18 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (3-5), 3.69 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 52-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 51-48 ATS.
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -105 | -130 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -115 | +105 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 73.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 39 away games (+16.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+13.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+12.75 Units / 75% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.45 Units / 53% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games at home (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+12.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
| Bailey Falter | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 54 of their last 94 games (+12.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+10.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 away games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games at home (+3.25 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 2.41% ROI).
- 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -2.35% ROI
- 51-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 2.67% ROI
- 44-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.95 Units / -10.94% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -2.91% ROI).
- 40-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -2.56% ROI
- 41-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -14.34% ROI
- 52-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 6.24% ROI
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .383 (18-for-47) against Bailey Falter’s low curves and sliders since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .175 — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (63 Total Bases / 151 ABs) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .273 — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .508 (132 Total Bases / 260 ABs) since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .372 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (20/51) against Bailey Falter on breaking pitches since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (294/580) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed an OPS of .912 (203 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .623 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .324 (61-for-188) against Jose Quintana versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .220 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .330 (66-for-200) against Jose Quintana versus the bottom of the order since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .219 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are 10-35 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Phillies are just 7-20 (.259) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 15-51 (.227) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 29-6 (.829) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Pirates are just 35-5 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 364 of their 1,516 plate appearances (24%) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
Phillies hitters have drawn 31 walks in 605 PA’s (5%) against RHP this month (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .305 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (2,373 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH since the start of last season (6,289 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Phillies pitchers have walked 149 of 2,307 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 213 of 2,271 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 272 of 2,787 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 18 of 337 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 951 of 9,960 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
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