- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Pirates starting pitcher: Charles Priester
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Philadelphia Phillies (-185) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Phillies are 56-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 48-55 ATS.
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -115 | O 9.5 -120 | -185 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -105 | U 9.5 +100 | +150 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 74.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+15.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Quinn Priester | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 86 games (+13.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games (+12.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 102 games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+5.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 43 away games (+5.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+19.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+13.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+8.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 41-62 against the Run Line (-30 Units / -22.98% ROI).
- 56-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -2.36% ROI
- 40-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.25 Units / -16.06% ROI
- 53-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.3 Units / 8.22% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 48-55 against the Run Line (-21.05 Units / -15.43% ROI).
- 45-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -3.92% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.59% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.8 Units / -9.52% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (139/364) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .186 (301 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 94th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 70% (797/1,144) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (268/863) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 35% of Quinn Priester’s pitches (31/89) over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Quinn Priester has walked 3 of 23 batters (13%) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 5th highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 15% (7/48) against Quinn Priester over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Quinn Priester has a strike rate of just 56% (50/89) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 23-97 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 5-43 (.104) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are just 9-17 (.346) after a road loss this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Phillies are 8-103 (.072) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 89-52 (.631) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Pirates are just 107-157 (.405) since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 102-137 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are just 63-93 (.404) after a loss since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Phillies are batting .259 at home since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (3,042 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .221 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 158 of 2,346 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 952 of 10,177 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
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