- The Phillies (53-47) are -155 favorites vs the Pirates (40-60)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (7-5), 3.84 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (3-7), 4.54 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (-155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 53-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 51-49 ATS.
Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -110 | -155 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -135 | U 7.5 -110 | +125 |
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 73.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 away games (+18.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 49 games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 away games (+13.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 40 games at home (+12.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ben Gamel has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -300 |
Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 54 of their last 95 games (+11.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 away games (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 91 games (+10.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+5.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games at home (+2.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 52-48 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 3.5% ROI).
- 53-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -1.58% ROI
- 51-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.59% ROI
- 45-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.95 Units / -9.93% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 51-49 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -4.09% ROI).
- 40-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -3.5% ROI
- 41-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -15.24% ROI
- 53-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.85 Units / 7.08% ROI
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (103/548) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (16/125) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.5 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (87 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 89.8
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (18/29) against Ranger Suarez — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .427 (162-for-379) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.2 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of last season (275 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 86.9
Opponents are hitting .299 (232-for-776) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .243 — fourth Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .396 (207 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are 11-35 (.239) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 7-20 (.259) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 83-22 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 7-9 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 3-7 (.300) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 15-52 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .314 on the road over the last 14 days (4 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 373 of their 1,536 plate appearances (24%) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have just 40 strikeouts in 214 PA’s (19%) against LHP this month (17 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .305 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .288 (3,638 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 150 of 2,317 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 2 of 92 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (10 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Phillies have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 213 of 2,281 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 954 of 10,002 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 272 of 2,797 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.36 (92.0 IP) at home this month (10 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.
Pirates vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
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