- The Marlins (41-43) are -160 favorites vs the Pirates (36-50)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (2-6), 5.21 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (4-7), 5.57 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-160) on Monday, July 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 36-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-41 ATS.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -115 | +135 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -105 | -160 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s matchup with 66.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+0.30 Units / 4% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+5.85 Units / 33% ROI)
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -165 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +110 |
| Mitch Keller | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 42 away games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 77 games (+6.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 37 away games (+2.70 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+11.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 42-44 against the Run Line (-7.05 Units / -6.59% ROI).
- 36-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 1% ROI
- 36-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.95 Units / -12.67% ROI
- 44-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 4.57% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-41 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -2.17% ROI).
- 41-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -3.89% ROI
- 41-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.67% ROI
- 39-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -6.28% ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .428 (149-for-348) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .318 (108-for-340) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .237 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .384 (805 PA’s) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 43% (276/646) against Mitch Keller this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 49% — third Percentile.
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 29% of the time (95/330) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .423 (52-for-123) against Trevor Rogers in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .326 — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (288/954) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.0 MPH against his curves since the start of last season (74 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 87.3
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 79-20 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 31-4 (.886) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Pirates are just 2-41 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 25-5 (.833) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Marlins are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are 37-7 (.841) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
The Pirates are batting just .215 with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .673 (6,302 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,342 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,342 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Marlins are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 206 of 2,154 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have allowed 1.69 runs per game (145/86) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Pirates pitchers have walked 922 of 9,474 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 265 of 2,670 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers this month (10 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Rojas (Marlins): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Side, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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