Pirates vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Marlins (41-43) are -160 favorites vs the Pirates (36-50)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (2-6), 5.21 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (4-7), 5.57 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-160) on Monday, July 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 36-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-41 ATS.

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -155O 7.5 -115+135
Marlins -1.5 +125U 7.5 -105-160

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s matchup with 66.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+0.30 Units / 4% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+5.85 Units / 33% ROI)

Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Brian Anderson 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Brian Anderson 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jacob Stallings 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Brian Anderson 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +115 0.5 -165

Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trevor Rogers 4.5 -160 4.5 +110
Mitch Keller 4.5 +120 4.5 -175
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 42 away games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 77 games (+6.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 37 away games (+2.70 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+11.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.25 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 42-44 against the Run Line (-7.05 Units / -6.59% ROI).

  • 36-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 1% ROI
  • 36-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.95 Units / -12.67% ROI
  • 44-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 4.57% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-41 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -2.17% ROI).

  • 41-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -3.89% ROI
  • 41-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.67% ROI
  • 39-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -6.28% ROI

Opponents are hitting .428 (149-for-348) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .318 (108-for-340) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .237 — second Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .384 (805 PA’s) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 43% (276/646) against Mitch Keller this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 49% — third Percentile.

Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 29% of the time (95/330) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .423 (52-for-123) against Trevor Rogers in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .326 — first Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (288/954) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.0 MPH against his curves since the start of last season (74 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 87.3

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Pirates are just 79-20 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 31-4 (.886) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Pirates are just 2-41 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 25-5 (.833) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Marlins are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.

The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Marlins are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are 37-7 (.841) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

The Pirates are batting just .215 with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .673 (6,302 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,342 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,342 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Marlins are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Pirates pitchers have walked 206 of 2,154 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have allowed 1.69 runs per game (145/86) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Pirates pitchers have walked 922 of 9,474 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 265 of 2,670 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers this month (10 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Miguel Rojas (Marlins): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Side, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.