Pirates vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 29

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(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (45-28) are favorites vs the (45-28)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (2-5), 4.77 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-1), 2.21 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Wednesday, June 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 29-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-44 ATS.

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates O
Nationals U

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Josh Bell 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Juan Soto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Luis Garcia 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Josh Bell 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Juan Soto 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Luis Garcia 1.5 +185 1.5 -275

Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Josh Bell 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Juan Soto 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Luis Garcia 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Paolo Espino 3.5 -105 3.5 -140
Mitch Keller 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 65 games (+7.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 73 games (+6.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 33 games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+12.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.35 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 33% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-40 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -12.05% ROI).

  • 29-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -6.13% ROI
  • 30-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.4 Units / -14.09% ROI
  • 38-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.7 Units / 5.71% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-44 against the Run Line (-17.5 Units / -18.33% ROI).

  • 29-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -12.03% ROI
  • 39-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.35% ROI
  • 35-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -8.85% ROI

Opponents are hitting .409 (133-for-325) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .312 (100-for-321) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.

Mitch Keller has a strike rate of just 60% (338/566) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .388 (369 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .307 — second Percentile.

Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Paolo Espino has struck out just 14% (9/66) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .205 (16-for-78) against Paolo Espino with two-strikes this season — 11th highest among among 109 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .156 — 10th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 12% (14/121) against Paolo Espino this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — 0 Percentile.

Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of just .222 (14 Total Bases / 63 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 11th best among among 101 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .349 — 90th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Pirates are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.

The Pirates are just 43-105 (.291) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.

The Pirates are just 7-21 (.250) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Nationals are just 8-44 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Nationals are just 15-22 (.405) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Nationals are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Nationals are 11-3 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .279 (894 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .224 (4,550 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Nationals hitters have just 159 strikeouts in 912 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have just 547 strikeouts in 2,759 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 37 double plays in 280 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Nationals hitters have just 656 strikeouts in 3,349 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 878 of 8,989 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 196 of 2,048 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 255 of 2,564 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 272 of 2,849 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.