- The – (45-28) are favorites vs the – (45-28)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (2-5), 4.77 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-1), 2.21 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Wednesday, June 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 29-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-44 ATS.
Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Diego Castillo has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Diego Castillo has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Josh Bell | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paolo Espino | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -140 |
| Mitch Keller | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 65 games (+7.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 73 games (+6.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 33 games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+12.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 33% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-40 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -12.05% ROI).
- 29-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -6.13% ROI
- 30-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.4 Units / -14.09% ROI
- 38-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.7 Units / 5.71% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-44 against the Run Line (-17.5 Units / -18.33% ROI).
- 29-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -12.03% ROI
- 39-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.35% ROI
- 35-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -8.85% ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .409 (133-for-325) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .312 (100-for-321) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of just 60% (338/566) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .388 (369 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .307 — second Percentile.
Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paolo Espino has struck out just 14% (9/66) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .205 (16-for-78) against Paolo Espino with two-strikes this season — 11th highest among among 109 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .156 — 10th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 12% (14/121) against Paolo Espino this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — 0 Percentile.
Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of just .222 (14 Total Bases / 63 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 11th best among among 101 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .349 — 90th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
The Pirates are just 43-105 (.291) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.
The Pirates are just 7-21 (.250) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 8-44 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 15-22 (.405) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Nationals are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are 11-3 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .279 (894 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .224 (4,550 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 159 strikeouts in 912 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 547 strikeouts in 2,759 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 37 double plays in 280 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have just 656 strikeouts in 3,349 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 878 of 8,989 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 196 of 2,048 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 255 of 2,564 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 272 of 2,849 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, Day-to-Day
- Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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