- The – (44-25) are favorites vs the – (44-25)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (1-7), 4.11 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Corey Kluber (3-4), 3.45 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays () on Saturday, June 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Pirates vs Rays Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 29-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 33-37 ATS.
Pirates vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | O | ||
| Rays | U |
Pirates vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 72.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+2.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+2.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Hoy Jun Park has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.70 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+5.50 Units / 110% ROI)
Rays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Rays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
Rays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
| JT Brubaker | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 69 games (+8.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 games (+5.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 26 games (+3.20 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+6.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 32-38 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -11.78% ROI).
- 29-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -1.08% ROI
- 29-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.05 Units / -11.85% ROI
- 35-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 3.46% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-37 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -2.67% ROI).
- 38-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -4.36% ROI
- 31-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.8 Units / -10.19% ROI
- 36-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 2.82% ROI
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 56% (187/334) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 49% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (164/334) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
JT Brubaker has allowed a slugging percentage of .917 (33 Total Bases / 36 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .577 — fourth Percentile.
JT Brubaker has a strikeout rate of 22% (16 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 83rd Percentile.
Corey Kluber: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corey Kluber has a strike rate of 70% (375/539) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 96th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (28/86) against Corey Kluber this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — ninth Percentile.
Corey Kluber has thrown inside pitches 51% of the time (249/488) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (493/1,016) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Pirates are just 74-18 (.804) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Pirates are just 2-33 (.057) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Pirates are just 5-26 (.161) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Rays are 15-5 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .674.
The Rays are 23-15 (.605) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Rays are just 30-3 (.909) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Rays are 64-6 (.914) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .454 (4,473 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .365 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .228 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 296 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .439 (1,397 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Rays have scored 1.81 runs per game (414/229) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.44.
Rays hitters have just 123 strikeouts in 668 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 253 of 2,531 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 861 of 8,834 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 194 of 2,015 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (971.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 32 of 628 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 616 of 8,566 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 125 of 2,090 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 163 of 2,618 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D10
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Hamstring, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Quad, D10
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
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