- The – (98-43) are favorites vs the – (98-43)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (5-4), 3.29 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (4-5), 3.77 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds () on Wednesday, September 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 53-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 64-74 ATS.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | O | ||
| Reds | U |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Wednesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+10.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Greg Allen has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -140 |
| Roansy Contreras | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.55 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+4.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 113 games (+13.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 70-68 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -3.52% ROI).
- 53-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -5.3% ROI
- 59-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -11.52% ROI
- 70-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 3.34% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 64-74 against the Run Line (-15.45 Units / -9.14% ROI).
- 54-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.2 Units / -12.19% ROI
- 68-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -4.14% ROI
- 67-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.35 Units / -5.46% ROI
Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras has a strikeout rate of just 22% (6 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .226 (12-for-53) against Roansy Contreras when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .333 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (11/77) against Roansy Contreras on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has a strikeout rate of just 22% (6 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 29% (83/282) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 29% (19 SO in 66 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .034 (1-for-29) against Nick Lodolo with two-strikes — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .149 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OPS of just .101 (30 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .443 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 91-25 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 56-125 (.309) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Pirates are just 28-43 (.394) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Pirates are just 12-44 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 19-69 (.216) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Reds are 10-6 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Reds are just 5-68 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .218 (6,997 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .305 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters are slugging just .354 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Reds hitters are slugging just .499 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Reds are batting just .244 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 232 of 2,642 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,360 of 13,816 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,111 of 11,589 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .279 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,140 of 11,625 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 523 of 5,426 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .298 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Head, Day-to-Day
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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