- The Pirates are +100 favorites vs the Reds
- Pirates vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Saturday, September 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 72-82 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 87-68 ATS.
Pirates vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 6-7, 3.85 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Rhett Lowder 1-2, 1.74 ERA
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +165 | O 9 -110 | +100 |
| Reds | +1.5 -200 | U 9 -110 | -120 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+12.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+12.15 Units / 135% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.40 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+18.75 Units / 156% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+10.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+7.45 Units / 75% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 115 games (+7.07 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 69 away games (+6.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 64 games at home (+15.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 137 games (+14.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 64 games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games at home (+5.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 81-73 against the Run Line (+1.98 Units / 0.99% ROI).
- 72-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.77 Units / -6.56% ROI
- 74-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.85 Units / -5.17% ROI
- 75-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.27 Units / -3.14% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 87-68 against the Run Line (+10.6 Units / 5.15% ROI).
- 75-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -2.61% ROI
- 73-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -5.37% ROI
- 74-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.35 Units / -3.74% ROI
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder (CIN) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (35/66) against Jared Jones when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strike rate of 69% (485/703) when ahead in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 99th Percentile.
Jared Jones has averaged 97.3 MPH on fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — 98th Percentile.
Jared Jones has allowed a slugging percentage of .590 (62 Total Bases / 105 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .406 — 0 Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rhett Lowder has induced opposing hitters to ground into 3 double plays in 8 opportunities (38%) this month (3 games) — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Rhett Lowder has not allowed a home run in any of the last 20.2 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 85.1.
Rhett Lowder has walked 4 of 32 left-handed batters (12%) this month (3 games) — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 14th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (22/119) against Rhett Lowder this month (3 games) — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 6-43 (.122) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are just 60-7 (.896) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates are just 7-36 (.163) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 21-32 (.396) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 217 strikeouts in 635 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .303 (5,357 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates hitters have 62 extra-base hits out of 225 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Pirates are batting just .131 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .151 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Reds are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates have won 34% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,668 of 18,367 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 15 of 122 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.68 (874.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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