- The Rays are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Rays vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Rays / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | BSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Tuesday, June 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Rays are 29-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 25-35 ATS.
Rays vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 3-2, 3.89 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 2-4, 4.24 ERA
Rays vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -120 | -120 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 +100 | +100 |
Rays vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 away games (+14.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+13.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 22 away games (+9.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.40 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+15.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 57 games (+22.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+4.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+11.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 25-35 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -14.52% ROI).
- 29-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -14.29% ROI
- 30-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -4.49% ROI
- 30-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -4.9% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 25-35 against the Run Line (-19.51 Units / -24.25% ROI).
- 21-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -24.16% ROI
- 32-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 28-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.95 Units / -10.49% ROI
Marlins vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Ramirez (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (MIA) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .177 (55-for-311) against Ryan Pepiot since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 87 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (2-for-22) against Ryan Pepiot on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .330 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .086 (3 GB hits out of 35 GBs) against Ryan Pepiot this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .082 (5 GB hits out of 61 GBs) against Ryan Pepiot with the shift since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 87 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitless in 17 AB’s against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the second time in a game — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .213 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 17 AB’s against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (11/42) against Jesus Luzardo over the last 14 days — lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 (65-for-331) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 93rd Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rays are 43-19 (.694) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Rays are 10-81 (.110) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Rays are 26-46 (.361) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Rays are 101-26 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Marlins are 11-102 (.097) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Marlins are just 65-16 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Marlins are just 27-66 (.290) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Marlins are just 23-85 (.213) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .267 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
26% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .204 (1,099 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have 579 extra-base hits out of 1,896 total hits (just 30%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (1,008 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 215 of 3,432 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
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