- The Yankees (84-56) are -125 favorites vs the Rays (78-59)
- Rays starting pitcher: Luis Patiño (1-1), 4.33 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán (2-3), 3.27 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (+105) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-125) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Rays vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 75-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 59-76 ATS.
Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -105 | +105 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -115 | -125 |
Rays vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+11.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+10.90 Units / 114% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 away games (+9.75 Units / 84% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+10.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Yankees vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
Yankees vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Yankees vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 33 away games (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 46 away games (+4.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+3.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 64-67 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -0.94% ROI).
- 75-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.6% ROI
- 60-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -6.51% ROI
- 65-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.47% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 59-76 against the Run Line (-20.05 Units / -12.75% ROI).
- 83-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -1.48% ROI
- 63-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -8.6% ROI
- 69-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.3% ROI
Luis Patiño: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Patino has limited playing time.
Domingo Germán: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Domingo German since the start of last season is 382.7 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 399.1
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (573/1,718) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (496/1,294) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (3/21) against Domingo German against right-handed batters — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 47-8 (.855) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Rays are 35-9 (.795) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Rays are 13-10 (.565) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 47-24 (.662) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 12-7 (.632) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Yankees are 25-4 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Yankees are 48-22 (.686) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Yankees are 47-12 (.797) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have just 3 strikeouts in 34 PA’s (9%) against LHP this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Rays are batting .464 against LHP this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Rays hitters have an OBP of .559 (34 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Rays hitters have grounded into 154 double plays in 2,025 opportunities (8%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Yankees hitters have drawn 332 walks in 3,305 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 819 walks in 8,093 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 760 of 11,038 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 154 of 2,690 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 61 of 1,228 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 928 of 13,250 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 366 of 5,136 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, D10
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Leg, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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