- The Astros (67-36) are -185 favorites vs the Red Sox (51-52)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (4-3), 4.42 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (8-6), 3.80 ERA
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Boston Red Sox (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Monday, August 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Red Sox vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 51-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-50 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -135 | O 7.5 -105 | +150 |
| Astros | -1.5 +110 | U 7.5 -115 | -185 |
Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+14.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 away games (+13.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 39 away games (+12.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 37 away games (+12.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 away games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+10.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 47 games at home (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI)
Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Luis Garcia | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 74 games (+7.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+7.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 away games (+5.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 74 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 90 games (+20.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 101 games (+18.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 87 games (+13.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 84 games (+9.15 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 2.14% ROI).
- 51-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -5.69% ROI
- 46-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -5.17% ROI
- 48-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -1.89% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 4.01% ROI).
- 67-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 5.42% ROI
- 38-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.6 Units / -24.56% ROI
- 61-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.95 Units / 16.54% ROI
Nathan Eovaldi: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (9/83) against Nathan Eovaldi this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has an ERA of 13.50 (8.2 IP) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 4.15 — 0 Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a slugging percentage of .612 (60 Total Bases / 98 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .366 — first Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has a strikeout rate of just 20% (4 SO in 20 PAs) with two-strikes — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 36% of Luis Garcia’s breaking pitches (290/813) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
49 of Luis Garcia’s 107 strikeouts (46%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .100 (4 GB hits out of 40 GBs) against Luis Garcia with runners on base this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .193 (95-for-491) against Luis Garcia since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Red Sox are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Red Sox are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 6-21 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 59-10 (.855) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Astros are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 26-10 (.722) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .333 (981 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 602 strikeouts in 3,281 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 1,979 strikeouts in 10,103 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 1,377 strikeouts in 6,822 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have allowed 8.40 runs per game (84/10) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.09 (89.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents are hitting just .212 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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