Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 1

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 01, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (67-36) are -185 favorites vs the Red Sox (51-52)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (4-3), 4.42 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (8-6), 3.80 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Boston Red Sox (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Monday, August 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Red Sox vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 51-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-50 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -135O 7.5 -105+150
Astros -1.5 +110U 7.5 -115-185

Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+14.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 away games (+13.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 39 away games (+12.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 37 away games (+12.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 away games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+10.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 47 games at home (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.35 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI)

Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Chas McCormick 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jake Meyers 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jose Altuve 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Chas McCormick 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Jake Meyers 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jose Altuve 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Chas McCormick 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jake Meyers 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jose Altuve 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nathan Eovaldi 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
Luis Garcia 6.5 +120 6.5 -165
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 74 games (+7.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+7.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 away games (+5.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 74 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 90 games (+20.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 101 games (+18.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 87 games (+13.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 84 games (+9.15 Units / 9% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 2.14% ROI).

  • 51-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -5.69% ROI
  • 46-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -5.17% ROI
  • 48-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -1.89% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 4.01% ROI).

  • 67-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 5.42% ROI
  • 38-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.6 Units / -24.56% ROI
  • 61-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.95 Units / 16.54% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (9/83) against Nathan Eovaldi this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has an ERA of 13.50 (8.2 IP) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 4.15 — 0 Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a slugging percentage of .612 (60 Total Bases / 98 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .366 — first Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has a strikeout rate of just 20% (4 SO in 20 PAs) with two-strikes — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.

Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 36% of Luis Garcia’s breaking pitches (290/813) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.

49 of Luis Garcia’s 107 strikeouts (46%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .100 (4 GB hits out of 40 GBs) against Luis Garcia with runners on base this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .193 (95-for-491) against Luis Garcia since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 96th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Red Sox are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Red Sox are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Red Sox are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 6-21 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Astros are 59-10 (.855) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Astros are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Astros are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 26-10 (.722) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .333 (981 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Astros hitters have just 602 strikeouts in 3,281 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 1,979 strikeouts in 10,103 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 1,377 strikeouts in 6,822 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Red Sox have allowed 8.40 runs per game (84/10) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.09 (89.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (10 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents are hitting just .212 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.