- The Blue Jays (87-69) are -190 favorites vs the Red Sox (75-81)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (10-11), 4.48 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Alek Manoah (15-7), 2.31 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-190) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 75-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 67-89 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -110 | +155 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -110 | -190 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 59.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 54 away games (+23.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 52 away games (+17.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 53 away games (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+16.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 53 games at home (+14.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 42 games at home (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bo Bichette | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Manoah | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
| Nick Pivetta | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 away games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 37 away games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 63 away games (+2.90 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 80-76 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 0.49% ROI).
- 75-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -7.61% ROI
- 72-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -4.92% ROI
- 74-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -2.64% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-89 against the Run Line (-27.6 Units / -14.74% ROI).
- 87-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.1 Units / -7.46% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -2.02% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -7.36% ROI
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (113/589) against Nick Pivetta this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (884/2,034) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (496/1,174) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has walked 67 of 730 batters (9%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Alek Manoah: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .162 (51-for-314) against Alek Manoah this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Alek Manoah has allowed a slugging percentage of just .255 (80 Total Bases / 314 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 100th Percentile.
Alek Manoah has allowed an OPS of just .470 (339 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .663 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .160 (82-for-513) against Alek Manoah since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 5-60 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-32 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are just 4-56 (.067) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Blue Jays are 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Blue Jays are 73-19 (.793) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Blue Jays are 43-35 (.551) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .661 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
The Blue Jays are batting .260 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .765 (6,132 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .438 on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.21 (616.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
The Red Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 987 times this season — 3rd most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 337 barreled balls this season — 2nd most in MLB.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 412 of 5,856 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 12 of 241 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (27 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 885 of 11,772 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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