Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Blue Jays (87-69) are -190 favorites vs the Red Sox (75-81)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (10-11), 4.48 ERA
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Alek Manoah (15-7), 2.31 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-190) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 75-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 67-89 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -135O 8 -110+155
Blue Jays -1.5 +110U 8 -110-190

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Blue Jays vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 54 away games (+23.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 52 away games (+17.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 53 away games (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+16.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 53 games at home (+14.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 42 games at home (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejandro Kirk 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Bo Bichette 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Danny Jansen 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
George Springer 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Matt Chapman 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejandro Kirk 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Bo Bichette 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Danny Jansen 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
George Springer 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Matt Chapman 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejandro Kirk 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Bo Bichette 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Danny Jansen 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
George Springer 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Matt Chapman 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Manoah 5.5 -160 5.5 +115
Nick Pivetta 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 away games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 37 away games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 63 away games (+2.90 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.50 Units / 19% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 80-76 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 0.49% ROI).

  • 75-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -7.61% ROI
  • 72-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -4.92% ROI
  • 74-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -2.64% ROI

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-89 against the Run Line (-27.6 Units / -14.74% ROI).

  • 87-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.1 Units / -7.46% ROI
  • 78-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -2.02% ROI
  • 74-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -7.36% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (113/589) against Nick Pivetta this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (884/2,034) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (496/1,174) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has walked 67 of 730 batters (9%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.

Alek Manoah: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed batters are hitting just .162 (51-for-314) against Alek Manoah this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.

Alek Manoah has allowed a slugging percentage of just .255 (80 Total Bases / 314 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 100th Percentile.

Alek Manoah has allowed an OPS of just .470 (339 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .663 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .160 (82-for-513) against Alek Manoah since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Red Sox are just 5-60 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 9-32 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Blue Jays are just 4-56 (.067) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Blue Jays are 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Blue Jays are 73-19 (.793) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Blue Jays are 43-35 (.551) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .661 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

The Blue Jays are batting .260 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .765 (6,132 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .438 on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .396.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.21 (616.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.

The Red Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 987 times this season — 3rd most in MLB.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 337 barreled balls this season — 2nd most in MLB.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 412 of 5,856 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 12 of 241 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (27 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 885 of 11,772 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
  • Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Blue Jays vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.