- The – are favorites vs the –
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells
- Watch the game on MASN
The Boston Red Sox () visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles () on Wednesday, April 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 13-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 12-11 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | O | ||
| Orioles | U |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+14.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.50 Units / 96% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.90 Units / 124% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+8.65 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.20 Units / 99% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+5.85 Units / 84% ROI)
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wells | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Tanner Houck | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.20 Units / 41% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+3.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 14-11 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 9.71% ROI).
- 13-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 1.53% ROI
- 18-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.2 Units / 37.36% ROI
- 7-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -47.67% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 12-11 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -1.86% ROI).
- 15-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 18.92% ROI
- 13-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.2 Units / 12.57% ROI
- 9-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.05 Units / -19.92% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (176/331) since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (44/76) against Tanner Houck in two-strike counts since last season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .230 (38 Total Bases / 165 ABs) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .358 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has walked 20 of 151 left-handed batters (13%) since last season — tied for 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 10th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .177 (11-for-62) against Tyler Wells on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (31/206) against Tyler Wells since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (23/159) against Tyler Wells since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells has allowed an OBP of just .215 (214 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are 4-11 (.267) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Red Sox are 9-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Red Sox are just 21-46 (.313) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Red Sox are 1-12 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 5-4 (.556) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Orioles are 14-10 (.583) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 40-13 (.755) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Orioles are 22-28 (.440) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .291.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .468 (79 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Red Sox hitters have a swing rate of just 24% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Red Sox are batting .373 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Red Sox hitters are slugging just .192 on breaking pitches against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .229 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Orioles hitters have grounded into 8 double plays in 33 opportunities (24%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .355 (439 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Orioles hitters have 493 strikeouts in 2,008 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (739.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed 36 home runs this season — 2nd most in MLB.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .158 against Orioles pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (1405.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Orioles pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .120 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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