Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 5

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (67-68) are -110 favorites vs the Rays (74-58)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (10-1), 2.55 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Luis Patiño (1-1), 3.95 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-110) on Monday, September 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 63-66 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +155O 7.5 -110-110
Rays +1.5 -190U 7.5 -110-110

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+18.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+16.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 away games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Isaac Paredes 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Manuel Margot 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100

Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Harold Ramirez 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Isaac Paredes 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Manuel Margot 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Randy Arozarena 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Isaac Paredes 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Manuel Margot 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Michael Wacha 4.5 +110 4.5 -160
Luis Patino 3.5 +100 3.5 -140
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 53 games (+11.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 115 games (+8.55 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.85 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-65 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -0.66% ROI).

  • 65-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.75 Units / -5.38% ROI
  • 60-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -5.06% ROI
  • 62-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -2.33% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 63-66 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -1.27% ROI).

  • 71-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -2.18% ROI
  • 58-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -5.89% ROI
  • 62-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -1.98% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (115/390) against Michael Wacha since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .156 (14-for-90) against Michael Wacha on inside fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of 38% (348/907) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of 49% (1,144/2,329) against Michael Wacha in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Patiño: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Red Sox are just 4-50 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Red Sox are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are just 61-8 (.884) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Rays are 28-8 (.778) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Rays are 13-10 (.565) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 33-9 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Red Sox are batting .268 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

25% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rays hitters have an OPS of 1.098 (68 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .654.

The Rays have scored 1.56 runs per game (455/291) in late innings since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

Rays hitters have an OPS of .723 (3,442 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Rays hitters have grounded into 152 double plays in 1,997 opportunities (8%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Red Sox have won 41% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (480.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Rays pitchers have walked 747 of 10,850 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 311 of 4,852 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 190 of 3,174 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 152 of 2,646 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Triceps, D10
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Nicholas Pivetta (Red Sox): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.