Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Rays are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
  • Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-160) on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Red Sox are 72-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 71-66 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -155O 8 -105+135
Rays -1.5 +125U 8 -115-160

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.80 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Adam Duvall has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.55 Units / 68% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.65 Units / 42% ROI)

Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Connor Wong 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Wilyer Abreu 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Rafael Devers 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Masataka Yoshida 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Jose Siri 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000

Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Connor Wong 0.5 -135 0.5 +105
Wilyer Abreu 0.5 -145 0.5 +110
Masataka Yoshida 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jose Siri 0.5 -125 0.5 -105
Rene Pinto 0.5 -110 0.5 -120

Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Connor Wong 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Wilyer Abreu 0.5 +230 0.5 -300
Rafael Devers 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Masataka Yoshida 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Jose Siri 0.5 +225 0.5 -300

Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kutter Crawford 4.5 -145 4.5 +110
Zach Eflin 5.5 -110 5.5 -120
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 18 games (+14.95 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 54 away games (+4.69 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 66 games at home (+14.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+12.84 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 68 games at home (+9.93 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 69 games at home (+7.35 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 69 games at home (+5.85 Units / 8% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 70-68 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -3.93% ROI).

  • 72-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.47% ROI
  • 72-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.5 Units / 4.3% ROI
  • 59-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.85 Units / -13.84% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 71-66 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 3.06% ROI).

  • 83-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 2.86% ROI
  • 73-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 4.51% ROI
  • 60-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.35 Units / -12.93% ROI

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (21/102) against Kutter Crawford with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (105 Total Bases / 177 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .407 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (450/798) against Kutter Crawford this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has thrown elevated pitches 53% of the time (172/327) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zach Eflin has allowed an OBP of just .232 (284 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .313 — 100th Percentile.

Zach Eflin has walked 20 of 594 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Zach Eflin has allowed three-ball counts to 9% of batters they faced (29/309 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Eflin has walked 10 of 285 left-handed batters (4%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are 59-2 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .897.

The Red Sox are 55-3 (.948) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.

The Red Sox are 42-28 (.600) after a win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Red Sox are just 13-119 (.098) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .131.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 44-12 (.786) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .687.

The Rays are 15-23 (.395) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Red Sox are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Red Sox are batting .188 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .531 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .452.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .373 (625 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .329.

Rays hitters have 147 strikeouts in 429 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Rays hitters are slugging .512 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .452.

Rays hitters are slugging .445 this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .415.

Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .269 since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Red Sox pitchers have not walked any of the 53 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 83 of 1,222 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.05 (963.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in late innings this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Rays pitchers have walked 765 of 11,013 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Rays pitchers have walked 167 of 2,669 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
  • Taylor Walls (Rays): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jason Adam (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
  • Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Elbow, D10
  • Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Alex Verdugo (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
  • Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
  • Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.