- The Rays are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-160) on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 72-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 71-66 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -105 | +135 |
| Rays | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -115 | -160 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.55 Units / 68% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Rene Pinto | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Zach Eflin | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 18 games (+14.95 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 54 away games (+4.69 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 66 games at home (+14.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+12.84 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 68 games at home (+9.93 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 69 games at home (+7.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 69 games at home (+5.85 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 70-68 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -3.93% ROI).
- 72-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.47% ROI
- 72-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.5 Units / 4.3% ROI
- 59-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.85 Units / -13.84% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 71-66 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 3.06% ROI).
- 83-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 2.86% ROI
- 73-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 4.51% ROI
- 60-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.35 Units / -12.93% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (21/102) against Kutter Crawford with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (105 Total Bases / 177 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .407 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (450/798) against Kutter Crawford this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown elevated pitches 53% of the time (172/327) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has allowed an OBP of just .232 (284 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .313 — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 20 of 594 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed three-ball counts to 9% of batters they faced (29/309 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 10 of 285 left-handed batters (4%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are 59-2 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Red Sox are 55-3 (.948) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Red Sox are 42-28 (.600) after a win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Red Sox are just 13-119 (.098) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .131.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 14-5 (.737) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 44-12 (.786) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
The Rays are 15-23 (.395) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Red Sox are batting .188 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .531 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .373 (625 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 147 strikeouts in 429 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters are slugging .512 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
Rays hitters are slugging .445 this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .269 since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have not walked any of the 53 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 83 of 1,222 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.05 (963.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in late innings this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 765 of 11,013 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 167 of 2,669 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Taylor Walls (Rays): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Adam (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Elbow, D10
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Alex Verdugo (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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