- The Red Sox (67-68) are -110 favorites vs the Rays (74-58)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (10-1), 2.55 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Luis Patiño (1-1), 3.95 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-110) on Monday, September 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 63-66 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -110 | -110 |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -110 | -110 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+18.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+16.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 away games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.05 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Harold Ramirez | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Manuel Margot | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -160 |
| Luis Patino | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 53 games (+11.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 115 games (+8.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 35% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-65 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -0.66% ROI).
- 65-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.75 Units / -5.38% ROI
- 60-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -5.06% ROI
- 62-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -2.33% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 63-66 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -1.27% ROI).
- 71-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -2.18% ROI
- 58-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -5.89% ROI
- 62-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -1.98% ROI
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (115/390) against Michael Wacha since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .156 (14-for-90) against Michael Wacha on inside fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 38% (348/907) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 49% (1,144/2,329) against Michael Wacha in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Patiño: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Red Sox are just 4-50 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Red Sox are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are just 61-8 (.884) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Rays are 28-8 (.778) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
The Rays are 13-10 (.565) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 33-9 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .268 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
25% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of 1.098 (68 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .654.
The Rays have scored 1.56 runs per game (455/291) in late innings since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .723 (3,442 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Rays hitters have grounded into 152 double plays in 1,997 opportunities (8%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox have won 41% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (480.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 747 of 10,850 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 311 of 4,852 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 190 of 3,174 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 152 of 2,646 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Triceps, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Nicholas Pivetta (Red Sox): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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