- The Cardinals (49-44) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (34-56)
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (2-2), 4.43 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas (6-7), 2.62 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-175) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Reds vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 34-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 50-43 ATS.
Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -115 | +145 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -105 | -175 |
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+20.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 57 games (+20.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+17.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.85 Units / 79% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Miles Mikolas has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 68% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -155 |
| Nick Lodolo | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Nick Lodolo | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 64 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+7.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 27 away games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 70 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+4.65 Units / 4% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 72% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 42-48 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -10.87% ROI).
- 34-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.35 Units / -12.88% ROI
- 49-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.8 Units / 4.84% ROI
- 40-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -14.39% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 50-43 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 2.75% ROI).
- 49-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.96% ROI
- 43-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -7.98% ROI
- 46-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -1.08% ROI
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .323 (10-for-31) against Nick Lodolo this month (2 games) — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 12th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .529 (17 PA’s) versus the top of the order this month (2 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .317 — fourth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 48% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (31/65) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 18% (8/45) against Nick Lodolo on the first pitch of at-bats this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Miles Mikolas: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Miles Mikolas has walked 9 of 224 left-handed batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (8/57) against Miles Mikolas with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .227 (10-for-44) against Miles Mikolas on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — 98th Percentile.
Miles Mikolas has allowed a slugging percentage of just .265 (13 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .426 — 92nd Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Reds are just 33-42 (.440) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Reds are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Reds are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 28-20 (.583) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Cardinals are 28-5 (.848) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Cardinals are 20-5 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .100 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Reds are batting just .103 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Reds hitters are slugging just .340 on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 194 extra-base hits out of 453 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have 221 extra-base hits out of 525 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Cardinals are batting just .300 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .228 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 704 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.29 (415.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Reds pitchers have walked 963 of 9,683 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have walked 208 of 2,244 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 80 of 825 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 92 double plays in 684 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Dakota Hudson (Cardinals): Neck, D15
- Juan Yepez (Cardinals): Forearm, D10
- Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
- Nolan Arenado (Cardinals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Dauri Moreta (Reds): Undisclosed, D15
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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