Reds vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 16

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 16, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cardinals (49-44) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (34-56)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (2-2), 4.43 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas (6-7), 2.62 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-175) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Reds vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 34-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 50-43 ATS.

Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -135O 8.5 -115+145
Cardinals -1.5 +110U 8.5 -105-175

Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cardinals vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+20.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 57 games (+20.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+17.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.85 Units / 79% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Miles Mikolas has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.25 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)

Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200

Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Andrew Knizner 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Brendan Donovan 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Dylan Carlson 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Cardinals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Miles Mikolas 4.5 +110 4.5 -155
Nick Lodolo 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
Nick Lodolo 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 64 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+7.60 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 27 away games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.15 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 70 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+4.65 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 72% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 42-48 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -10.87% ROI).

  • 34-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.35 Units / -12.88% ROI
  • 49-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.8 Units / 4.84% ROI
  • 40-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -14.39% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 50-43 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 2.75% ROI).

  • 49-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.96% ROI
  • 43-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -7.98% ROI
  • 46-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -1.08% ROI

Right-handed batters are hitting .323 (10-for-31) against Nick Lodolo this month (2 games) — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 12th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .529 (17 PA’s) versus the top of the order this month (2 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .317 — fourth Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 48% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (31/65) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 18% (8/45) against Nick Lodolo on the first pitch of at-bats this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.

Miles Mikolas: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Miles Mikolas has walked 9 of 224 left-handed batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (8/57) against Miles Mikolas with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .227 (10-for-44) against Miles Mikolas on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — 98th Percentile.

Miles Mikolas has allowed a slugging percentage of just .265 (13 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .426 — 92nd Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Reds are just 33-42 (.440) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Reds are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.

The Reds are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cardinals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 28-20 (.583) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Cardinals are 28-5 (.848) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Cardinals are 20-5 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Reds are batting just .100 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Reds are batting just .103 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Reds hitters are slugging just .340 on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Cardinals hitters have 194 extra-base hits out of 453 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have 221 extra-base hits out of 525 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Cardinals are batting just .300 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .228 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 704 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.29 (415.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.

Reds pitchers have walked 963 of 9,683 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 208 of 2,244 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 80 of 825 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 92 double plays in 684 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Dakota Hudson (Cardinals): Neck, D15
  • Juan Yepez (Cardinals): Forearm, D10
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
  • Nolan Arenado (Cardinals): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Dauri Moreta (Reds): Undisclosed, D15
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cardinals vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.