- The Cubs are -125 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Cubs Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Reds / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSOH | ESPN+
The Cincinnati Reds (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Reds are 76-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 77-83 ATS.
Reds vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Rhett Lowder 2-2, 1.40 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks 4-12, 6.37 ERA
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +180 | O 7 -110 | +105 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -225 | U 7 -110 | -125 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 away games (+18.75 Units / 156% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+15.05 Units / 54% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+13.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 away games (+11.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+20.00 Units / 118% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+19.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+15.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 145 games (+15.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 142 games (+12.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 144 games (+7.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 54 away games (+5.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 63 games at home (+16.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 73 games (+10.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games at home (+10.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 89-71 against the Run Line (+8.55 Units / 4% ROI).
- 76-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.95 Units / -4.24% ROI
- 73-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.85 Units / -8.39% ROI
- 79-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -0.83% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 77-83 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -8.99% ROI).
- 82-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.07% ROI
- 75-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -6.86% ROI
- 79-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -1.79% ROI
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder (CIN) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Kyle Hendricks (CHC) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rhett Lowder has not allowed a home run in any of the last 25.2 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 87.2.
Rhett Lowder has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to August 30th — Beau Brieske has the longest active streak at 15.
Rhett Lowder did not walk any of the 15 batters that he faced against right-handed batters in his last start — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Rhett Lowder has struck out just 14% (7/49) of right-handed batters he faced this month (4 games) — tied for 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.4 MPH since last season (858 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 89.0
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on non-fastballs since last season (431 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 87.2
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.6 MPH on fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.6 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 21-32 (.396) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 18-22 (.450) after a home loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are 32-10 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Cubs are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 64-12 (.842) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .263 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Cubs are batting .283 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Cubs hitters have drawn 97 walks in 1,487 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .327 (6,392 PA’s) on the road since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 125 of 1,418 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 79 double plays in 1,114 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs have allowed 3.46 runs per game (273/79) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.13 (714.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chicago Cubs – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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