- The Reds are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Reds vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Marlins TV Channel: BSOH | BSFL | ESPN+
The Cincinnati Reds (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Monday, August 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Reds are 53-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 53-59 ATS.
Reds vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Tony Santillan 0-0, 1.18 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 2-5, 5.43 ERA
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -120 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 +100 | +120 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+18.50 Units / 206% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+15.10 Units / 75% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+13.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.55 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+30.00 Units / 600% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+17.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+16.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+14.30 Units / 55% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 95 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 93 games (+8.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+8.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 away games (+6.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 56 games at home (+20.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+9.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+9.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 61-50 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 3.25% ROI).
- 53-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -5.33% ROI
- 49-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -11.9% ROI
- 57-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 2.22% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 53-59 against the Run Line (-22.51 Units / -15.35% ROI).
- 42-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.6 Units / -12.35% ROI
- 60-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 5.5% ROI
- 49-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.05 Units / -13.06% ROI
Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roddery Munoz (MIA) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .100 (2-for-20) against Tony Santillan over the last 14 days — tied for 10th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .230 — 90th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (3/25) against Tony Santillan over the past seven days (3 games) — 8th lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 14% (3/22) against Tony Santillan on the first pitch of at-bats in his last five appearances — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 14% (3/22) against Tony Santillan on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — 7th lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 32% — sixth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .680 (34 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .368 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .148 (9 GB hits out of 61 GBs) against Roddery Munoz this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (61/196) against Roddery Munoz this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (56/196) against Roddery Munoz this season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 29-34 (.460) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 3-12 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 14-13 (.519) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .761.
The Marlins are just 11-16 (.407) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Marlins are just 22-10 (.688) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .106 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters are slugging just .140 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 221 of 2,423 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 4.71 (2003.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 14 of 114 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
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