- The Mets are -185 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (+150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-185) on Friday, September 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Reds are 68-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 71-69 ATS.
Reds vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Fernando Cruz 3-8, 4.94 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 11-5, 3.37 ERA
Reds vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +150 |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -115 | -185 |
Reds vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 59.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 away games (+16.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+14.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 44 games (+21.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+21.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+15.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.80 Units / 86% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 71 of their last 123 games (+14.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 126 games (+9.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 41 away games (+6.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 81 games (+17.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 92 games (+15.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 38 games at home (+14.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+14.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 82 games (+12.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 79-62 against the Run Line (+10.45 Units / 5.61% ROI).
- 68-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -4.44% ROI
- 66-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -5.52% ROI
- 67-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -3.88% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 71-69 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -0.78% ROI).
- 76-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 2.48% ROI
- 69-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -1.92% ROI
- 65-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.95 Units / -6.63% ROI
Mets vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Mets vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Amed Rosario (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 43% (74/170) against Fernando Cruz this season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 43% (74/170) against Fernando Cruz this season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Fernando Cruz has a strikeout rate of 61% (90 SO in 147 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 41% (218/532) against Fernando Cruz since last season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has walked 26 of 243 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .191 (41-for-215) against Sean Manaea when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 93rd Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 16 of 120 batters (13%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 24 of 243 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 10th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 6-15 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 14-64 (.179) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mets are just 57-13 (.814) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Mets are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Mets are 20-14 (.588) after a road loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters are slugging just .148 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters have 316 extra-base hits out of 787 total hits (40%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .742 (8,983 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .765 (1,393 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Mets hitters have 128 extra-base hits out of 323 total hits (40%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
The longest HR allowed by the Reds pitchers this season traveled 480.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 461.2
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,113 of 11,390 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 111 of 1,251 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 522 of 5,306 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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