- The Pirates are -165 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Cincinnati Reds (+140) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-165) on Thursday, April 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 7-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-7 ATS.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -140 | O 9 +100 | +140 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +115 | U 9 -120 | -165 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 73% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 40% ROI)
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roansy Contreras | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+6.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 73% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 11-7 against the Run Line (+5.05 Units / 23.6% ROI).
- 7-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -16.8% ROI
- 11-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 17.95% ROI
- 7-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -25.87% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 12-7 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 10.8% ROI).
- 12-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 44.19% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -3.13% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -3.1% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras has not struck out any hitters in 17 PA’s in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has walked 16 of 132 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has struck out just 6% (2/33) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has allowed an OBP of .538 (26 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .343 — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Reds are just 58-6 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Reds are just 1-5 (.167) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 62-39 (.614) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Pirates are just 64-4 (.941) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Pirates are just 109-75 (.592) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Reds are batting just .225 on the road since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Reds hitters are slugging just .372 since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .637 (232 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .663 (4,154 PA’s) against LHP since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .382 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .405 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Reds pitchers have walked 681 of 6,945 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,298 of 13,144 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 661 of 6,973 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 14,746 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,267 of 13,113 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shin, Day-to-Day
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
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