Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 20

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 20, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Pirates are -165 favorites vs the Reds
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Cincinnati Reds (+140) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-165) on Thursday, April 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Reds are 7-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-7 ATS.

Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -140O 9 +100+140
Pirates -1.5 +115U 9 -120-165

Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Reds vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 35% ROI)
  • TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 40% ROI)

Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
TJ Friedl 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Jonathan India 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Austin Hedges 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000

Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -200 0.5 +155
TJ Friedl 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jonathan India 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Austin Hedges 0.5 -105 0.5 -120

Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
TJ Friedl 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Jonathan India 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Austin Hedges 0.5 +240 0.5 -350

Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Roansy Contreras 5.5 +115 5.5 -155
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+6.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 73% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 11-7 against the Run Line (+5.05 Units / 23.6% ROI).

  • 7-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -16.8% ROI
  • 11-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 17.95% ROI
  • 7-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -25.87% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 12-7 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 10.8% ROI).

  • 12-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 44.19% ROI
  • 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -3.13% ROI
  • 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -3.1% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Roansy Contreras has not struck out any hitters in 17 PA’s in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has walked 16 of 132 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has struck out just 6% (2/33) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has allowed an OBP of .538 (26 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .343 — second Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.

The Reds are just 58-6 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.

The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Reds are just 1-5 (.167) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 62-39 (.614) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Pirates are just 64-4 (.941) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.

The Pirates are just 109-75 (.592) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Reds are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

The Reds are batting just .225 on the road since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Reds hitters are slugging just .372 since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .637 (232 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .663 (4,154 PA’s) against LHP since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .382 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .405 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .261.

Reds pitchers have walked 681 of 6,945 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,298 of 13,144 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 661 of 6,973 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 14,746 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,267 of 13,113 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D10
  • Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shin, Day-to-Day
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.