- The Pirates are -145 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 7-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-8 ATS.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.70 Units / 86% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.35 Units / 99% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.85 Units / 96% ROI)
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+7.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 51% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 12-7 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 26.59% ROI).
- 7-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -20.88% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.5 Units / 12.2% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -19.72% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 12-8 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 6.75% ROI).
- 13-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 45.45% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -7.57% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 1.58% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OBP of just .132 (38 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .318 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 19 AB’s against Graham Ashcraft with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft allowed a batting average of .364 vs right-handed batters (fourth worst)– fourth Percentile and just .057 vs left-handed batters this season (best among qualified SPs)– 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (31/51) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 9% (2/22) against Mitch Keller on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (11/66) against Mitch Keller this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .478 (11 Total Bases / 23 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 10th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of just 19% (5 SO in 26 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Reds are just 1-5 (.167) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Reds are just 58-6 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 42-204 (.171) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 37-50 (.425) at home since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Pirates are just 62-39 (.614) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .187 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Reds hitters are slugging just .486 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 24% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Reds hitters have chased 9% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 15%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Pirates are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Pirates are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.
The Pirates are batting just .225 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .377 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Reds pitchers have walked 684 of 6,975 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,457 of 14,699 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .395 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 14,746 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 663 of 7,009 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,269 of 13,149 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 303 of 3,367 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2020 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shin, Day-to-Day
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
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