Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 21, 2022, 9:14 AM
  • The Pirates (47-73) are -125 favorites vs the Reds (47-71)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-10), 6.31 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (3-9), 5.51 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Cincinnati Reds (+105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 46-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 60-57 ATS.

Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -190O 8.5 -115+105
Pirates -1.5 +155U 8.5 -105-125

Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 39 games at home (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 37 games at home (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 90 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 37 away games (+6.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 33 games (+1.55 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+5.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 games at home (+0.80 Units / 3% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-12.8 Units / -8.87% ROI).

  • 46-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -10.18% ROI
  • 59-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.51% ROI
  • 56-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -7% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.34% ROI).

  • 46-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -3.54% ROI
  • 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -7.99% ROI
  • 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.23% ROI

Opponents are hitting .333 (9-for-27) against Mike Minor with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .167 — first Percentile.

26 of Mike Minor’s 82 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed 7 stolen bases this month (3 games) — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of .938 (31 PA’s) with two-strikes — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .491 — third Percentile.

Zachary Thompson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (21/141) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .317 (64-for-202) against Zach Thompson this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .250 — fifth Percentile.

Zach Thompson has a strikeout rate of just 10% (10 SO in 101 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Zach Thompson has allowed an OBP of .370 (284 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .299 — third Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 35-7 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Reds are just 17-58 (.227) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Reds are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Reds are just 10-55 (.154) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 15-64 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 51-121 (.297) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 32-8 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .280 (546 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Reds hitters are slugging just .334 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Reds hitters have 31 strikeouts in 81 PA’s (38%) against LHP over the last 14 days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Reds are batting just .237 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (2,866 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Pirates are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .306 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,062 of 10,762 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .301 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 64 double plays in 923 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Pirates pitchers have walked 280 of 2,963 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 221 of 2,447 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,021 of 10,735 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Mitch Keller (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Undisclosed, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Shoulder, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.