- The Pirates (47-73) are -125 favorites vs the Reds (47-71)
- Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-10), 6.31 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (3-9), 5.51 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Cincinnati Reds (+105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 46-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 60-57 ATS.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -115 | +105 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 39 games at home (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 37 games at home (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 90 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 37 away games (+6.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 33 games (+1.55 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+5.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 games at home (+0.80 Units / 3% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-12.8 Units / -8.87% ROI).
- 46-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -10.18% ROI
- 59-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.51% ROI
- 56-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -7% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.34% ROI).
- 46-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -3.54% ROI
- 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -7.99% ROI
- 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.23% ROI
Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .333 (9-for-27) against Mike Minor with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .167 — first Percentile.
26 of Mike Minor’s 82 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed 7 stolen bases this month (3 games) — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of .938 (31 PA’s) with two-strikes — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .491 — third Percentile.
Zachary Thompson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (21/141) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .317 (64-for-202) against Zach Thompson this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .250 — fifth Percentile.
Zach Thompson has a strikeout rate of just 10% (10 SO in 101 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Zach Thompson has allowed an OBP of .370 (284 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .299 — third Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 35-7 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Reds are just 17-58 (.227) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Reds are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Reds are just 10-55 (.154) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 15-64 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 51-121 (.297) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Pirates are just 32-8 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .280 (546 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Reds hitters are slugging just .334 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Reds hitters have 31 strikeouts in 81 PA’s (38%) against LHP over the last 14 days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Reds are batting just .237 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (2,866 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Pirates are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .306 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,062 of 10,762 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .301 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 64 double plays in 923 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 280 of 2,963 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 221 of 2,447 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,021 of 10,735 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Mitch Keller (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Undisclosed, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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