- The Yankees (61-25) are -300 favorites vs the Reds (32-54)
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-2), 4.34 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (8-2), 3.26 ERA
- Watch the game on YES
The Cincinnati Reds (+240) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-300) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The Reds vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 32-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 43-43 ATS.
Reds vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +2.5 -115 | O 8 -105 | +240 |
| Yankees | -2.5 -105 | U 8 -115 | -300 |
Reds vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.95 Units / 81% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+7.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+4.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games at home (+6.70 Units / 72% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Matt Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 61% ROI)
Yankees vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
Yankees vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -200 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
Yankees vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
Yankees vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 -105 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+4.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 76 games (+23.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 64 games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 82 games (+2.10 Units / 2% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 39-47 against the Run Line (-14.4 Units / -13.42% ROI).
- 32-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.55 Units / -15.83% ROI
- 46-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 2.95% ROI
- 39-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -12.7% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 0.3% ROI).
- 61-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.85 Units / 12.5% ROI
- 39-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -10.08% ROI
- 44-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.59% ROI
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (9/97) against Graham Ashcraft on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 13% (29 SO in 217 PAs) this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (57/93) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (69/405) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
55% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has located his fastball away 64% of the time (507/799) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (182/472) against Gerrit Cole in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 35% (64/181) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Reds are just 24-5 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Reds are just 11-43 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Reds are just 18-28 (.391) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Reds are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Yankees are 6-16 (.273) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .112.
The Yankees are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Yankees are 48-1 (.980) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% against LHP over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Reds hitters have 157 strikeouts in 520 PA’s (30%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds hitters have 92 strikeouts in 293 PA’s (31%) against RHP this month (11 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.266 (620 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.061.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are slugging .571 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 79% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 44 double plays in 672 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have walked 938 of 9,523 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers have walked 321 of 3,324 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .310 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 67% of the time at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Yankees vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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