Reds vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 12

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 12, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (61-25) are -300 favorites vs the Reds (32-54)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-2), 4.34 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (8-2), 3.26 ERA
  • Watch the game on YES

The Cincinnati Reds (+240) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-300) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Reds vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 32-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 43-43 ATS.

Reds vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+2.5 -115O 8 -105+240
Yankees -2.5 -105U 8 -115-300

Reds vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.95 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+7.85 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+4.30 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games at home (+6.70 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Matt Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 61% ROI)

Yankees vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Hicks 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +300 0.5 -550

Yankees vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Hicks 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
DJ LeMahieu 1.5 +140 1.5 -200
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Jose Trevino 0.5 -300 0.5 +195

Yankees vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Hicks 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +120 0.5 -165

Yankees vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Gerrit Cole 7.5 -135 7.5 -105
Graham Ashcraft 3.5 -120 3.5 -115
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+4.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 76 games (+23.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 64 games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 82 games (+2.10 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 10% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 39-47 against the Run Line (-14.4 Units / -13.42% ROI).

  • 32-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.55 Units / -15.83% ROI
  • 46-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 2.95% ROI
  • 39-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -12.7% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 0.3% ROI).

  • 61-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.85 Units / 12.5% ROI
  • 39-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -10.08% ROI
  • 44-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.59% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (9/97) against Graham Ashcraft on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 13% (29 SO in 217 PAs) this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (57/93) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (69/405) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

55% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has located his fastball away 64% of the time (507/799) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (182/472) against Gerrit Cole in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has struck out 35% (64/181) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Reds are just 24-5 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Reds are just 11-43 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Reds are just 18-28 (.391) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Reds are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Yankees are 6-16 (.273) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .112.

The Yankees are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Yankees are 48-1 (.980) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% against LHP over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Reds hitters have 157 strikeouts in 520 PA’s (30%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Reds hitters have 92 strikeouts in 293 PA’s (31%) against RHP this month (11 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.266 (620 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.061.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are slugging .571 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 79% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 44 double plays in 672 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 938 of 9,523 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds pitchers have walked 321 of 3,324 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .310 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 67% of the time at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Yankees vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.