Reds vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 13, 2022, 10:58 AM
  • The Yankees (61-26) are -350 favorites vs the Reds (33-54)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-6), 6.63 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino (5-3), 3.10 ERA
  • Watch the game on YES

The Cincinnati Reds (+260) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-350) on Wednesday, July 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Reds vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 33-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 43-44 ATS.

Reds vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+2.5 -115O 8.5 +100+260
Yankees -2.5 -105U 8.5 -120-350

Reds vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.95 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+6.85 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+5.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 12 away games (+4.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Yankees vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aaron Judge 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
    Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
    DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
    Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
    Gleyber Torres 0.5 +280 0.5 -450

    Yankees vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aaron Judge 1.5 +195 1.5 -300
    Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
    DJ LeMahieu 1.5 +160 1.5 -225
    Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
    Gleyber Torres 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

    Yankees vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Aaron Judge 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
    Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
    DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
    Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
    Gleyber Torres 0.5 +125 0.5 -175

    Yankees vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Luis Severino 6.5 +110 6.5 -155
    Mike Minor 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+9.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 away games (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 77 games (+20.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games at home (+6.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 40-47 against the Run Line (-13.15 Units / -12.14% ROI).

    • 33-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.95 Units / -12.86% ROI
    • 46-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.88% ROI
    • 40-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.05 Units / -11.5% ROI

    Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 43-44 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -1.14% ROI).

    • 61-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.65 Units / 10.28% ROI
    • 39-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -11.02% ROI
    • 45-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 2.61% ROI

    22 of Mike Minor’s 72 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

    Mike Minor has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to June 3rd — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 10.

    24 of Mike Minor’s 90 breaking pitch strikeouts (27%) have been backdoor since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.

    Mike Minor has walked 7 of 167 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 99th Percentile.

    Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Luis Severino has struck out 34% (67/194) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.

    The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 376.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 398.3

    Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 32% (126/390) against Luis Severino this season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.

    Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of 48% (94 SO in 195 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 88th Percentile.

    Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

    The Reds are just 24-5 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

    The Reds are just 22-5 (.815) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.

    The Reds are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Reds are just 18-28 (.391) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

    Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

    The Yankees are 6-16 (.273) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .112.

    The Yankees are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

    The Yankees are 27-16 (.628) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

    The Yankees are 34-10 (.773) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

    Reds hitters have 156 strikeouts in 517 PA’s (30%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Reds hitters have an OBP of just .286 (392 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

    Reds hitters are slugging just .335 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

    Reds hitters have 104 strikeouts in 327 PA’s (32%) against RHP this month (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Yankees hitters have drawn 681 walks in 6,520 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Yankees hitters are slugging .568 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

    Yankees hitters have an OBP of .331 (2,360 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

    Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.264 (628 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.061.

    Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 46 double plays in 683 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    The Reds have allowed 1.84 runs per game (160/87) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

    Reds pitchers have walked 943 of 9,561 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

    In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

    The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7

    Yankees vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Hicks (Yankees): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.