- The Astros (51-27) are -250 favorites vs the Royals (29-48)
- Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (1-4), 5.20 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (3-2), 3.12 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Kansas City Royals (+200) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Royals vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 29-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 42-36 ATS.
Royals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 +110 | O 9 -115 | +200 |
| Astros | -1.5 -135 | U 9 -105 | -250 |
Royals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 56.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 away games (+10.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 32 away games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 away games (+9.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 26 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+14.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+11.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 21 games at home (+11.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Astros vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jeremy Pena | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Astros vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
Astros vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Odorizzi | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +115 |
| Jon Heasley | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 38 of their last 72 games (+4.05 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games (+19.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 65 games (+18.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 62 games (+17.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+13.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+10.00 Units / 72% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-44 against the Run Line (-23.35 Units / -22.02% ROI).
- 29-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.1 Units / -19.5% ROI
- 37-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -2.62% ROI
- 36-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.05 Units / -5.89% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 42-36 against the Run Line (+9.1 Units / 10.13% ROI).
- 51-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 10.53% ROI
- 26-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.85 Units / -30.3% ROI
- 48-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.4 Units / 22.43% ROI
Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Heasley has walked 24 of 201 batters (12%) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .622 (23 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .373 — fourth Percentile.
Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (54 Total Bases / 91 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .388 — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 15% (13/86) against Jon Heasley when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Jacob Odorizzi: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (380/740) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (520/1,155) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .159 (13-for-82) against Jake Odorizzi’s inside fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .159 (13-for-82) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 0-24 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Royals are 4-1 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros are 48-7 (.873) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Astros are 27-16 (.628) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Astros are 29-3 (.906) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Astros are 24-11 (.686) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Royals hitters have just 478 strikeouts in 2,534 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .339 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Royals hitters have just 579 strikeouts in 2,995 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 539 strikeouts in 2,919 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 669 strikeouts in 3,579 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros have an average HR distance of 391.6 feet since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 399.9.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have walked 892 of 9,119 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.51 (316.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 1.00 (54.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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