Royals vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (51-27) are -250 favorites vs the Royals (29-48)
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (1-4), 5.20 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (3-2), 3.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Kansas City Royals (+200) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Royals vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 29-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 42-36 ATS.

Royals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 +110O 9 -115+200
Astros -1.5 -135U 9 -105-250

Royals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 56.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 away games (+10.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 32 away games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 away games (+9.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 26 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+14.40 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+11.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 21 games at home (+11.05 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)

Astros vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jake Meyers 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Jose Altuve 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +320 0.5 -550

Astros vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jake Meyers 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jeremy Pena 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Jose Altuve 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Astros vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Jake Meyers 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Jose Altuve 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +120 0.5 -175

Astros vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Odorizzi 3.5 -160 3.5 +115
Jon Heasley 3.5 +105 3.5 -150
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 38 of their last 72 games (+4.05 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games (+19.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 65 games (+18.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 62 games (+17.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+13.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+10.00 Units / 72% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-44 against the Run Line (-23.35 Units / -22.02% ROI).

  • 29-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.1 Units / -19.5% ROI
  • 37-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -2.62% ROI
  • 36-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.05 Units / -5.89% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 42-36 against the Run Line (+9.1 Units / 10.13% ROI).

  • 51-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 10.53% ROI
  • 26-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.85 Units / -30.3% ROI
  • 48-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.4 Units / 22.43% ROI

Jon Heasley has walked 24 of 201 batters (12%) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.

Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .622 (23 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .373 — fourth Percentile.

Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (54 Total Bases / 91 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .388 — first Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 15% (13/86) against Jon Heasley when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Jacob Odorizzi: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (380/740) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (520/1,155) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .159 (13-for-82) against Jake Odorizzi’s inside fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .159 (13-for-82) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 100th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Royals are just 0-24 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.

The Royals are 4-1 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Astros are 48-7 (.873) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Astros are 27-16 (.628) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Astros are 29-3 (.906) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Astros are 24-11 (.686) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Royals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Royals hitters have just 478 strikeouts in 2,534 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .339 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.

Royals hitters have just 579 strikeouts in 2,995 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 539 strikeouts in 2,919 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 669 strikeouts in 3,579 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Astros have an average HR distance of 391.6 feet since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 399.9.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 892 of 9,119 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.51 (316.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 1.00 (54.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.