- The Astros (53-27) are -275 favorites vs the Royals (29-50)
- Royals starting pitcher: Brad Keller (3-9), 4.23 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (6-3), 2.58 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Kansas City Royals (+230) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-275) on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Royals vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 29-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 43-37 ATS.
Royals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 +110 | O 8 -115 | +230 |
| Astros | -1.5 -135 | U 8 -105 | -275 |
Royals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 56.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 away games (+11.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 105% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 34 away games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+11.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 23 games at home (+9.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+7.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Astros vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Astros vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +110 |
| Brad Keller | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 67 games (+6.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.05 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 away games (+4.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 64 games (+19.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 67 games (+18.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games (+17.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 61 games (+13.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+12.00 Units / 76% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 34-45 against the Run Line (-23.15 Units / -21.43% ROI).
- 29-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.1 Units / -21.41% ROI
- 39-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.23% ROI
- 36-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -8.3% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 43-37 against the Run Line (+8.7 Units / 9.41% ROI).
- 53-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.75 Units / 11.68% ROI
- 28-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.85 Units / -27.27% ROI
- 48-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.15 Units / 19.32% ROI
Brad Keller: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brad Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (194/359) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Brad Keller has a strikeout rate of just 16% (56 SO in 359 PAs) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (50/87) against Brad Keller in two-strike counts this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 93rd Percentile.
Brad Keller has struck out just 14% (27/195) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (350/701) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier has allowed an OPS of just .135 (45 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .706 — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (445/915) since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 60% of the time (177/294) when behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 0-24 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Royals are just 14-25 (.359) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Royals are 4-1 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 8-25 (.242) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros are 48-7 (.873) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 30-3 (.909) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Astros are 42-3 (.933) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .920.
The Astros are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 478 strikeouts in 2,534 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have won just 47% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.
Royals hitters have just 579 strikeouts in 2,995 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 539 strikeouts in 2,922 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 1,817 strikeouts in 9,277 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 168 strikeouts in 974 PA’s (17%) against left-handed relievers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have walked 182 of 2,118 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 902 of 9,199 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents are hitting just .211 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.69 (334.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Robert Witt Jr. (Royals): Hand, Day-to-Day
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