- The Diamondbacks are -275 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Kansas City Royals (+220) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-275) on Wednesday, April 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Royals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 6-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 14-11 ATS.
Royals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 +110 | O 8 -115 | +220 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 -135 | U 8 -105 | -275 |
Royals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 away games (+5.90 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Yarbrough | 2.5 +110 | 2.5 -145 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 away games (+1.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+5.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 9-15 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -29.87% ROI).
- 6-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -40.37% ROI
- 12-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -1.31% ROI
- 11-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -8.45% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 14-11 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 4.46% ROI).
- 13-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 17.41% ROI
- 12-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.54% ROI
- 11-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -7.16% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Yarbrough has a strikeout rate of just 16% (5 SO in 31 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 8% (6/73) against Ryan Yarbrough this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough has a strikeout rate of just 30% (66 SO in 221 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .231 (45-for-195) against Ryan Yarbrough with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .156 — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .089 (4-for-45) against Zac Gallen — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .157 (51 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has struck out 37% (19/51) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .552 (832 PA’s) since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .673 — 97th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Royals are just 3-8 (.273) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Royals are just 5-49 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Royals are just 25-96 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Royals are just 1-17 (.056) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Diamondbacks are just 111-23 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 101-33 (.754) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 13-29 (.310) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 30-25 (.545) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting just .133 against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .256 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .279 (870 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .554 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .277 (428 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 44 walks in 633 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .371 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 12 walks in 286 PA’s (4%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (211.2 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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