- The Mets are -165 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (+140) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-165) on Saturday, April 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Royals are 9-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 6-7 ATS.
Royals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh 1-0, 3.09 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 1-0, 0.84 ERA
Royals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 -110 | +140 |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -110 | -165 |
Royals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Seth Lugo has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+11.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+11.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.55 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- DJ Stewart has hit the Hits Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.25 Units / 89% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 98% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.45 Units / 91% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+9.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.49 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 9-5 against the Run Line (+2.4 Units / 12.28% ROI).
- 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 26.38% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -25.55% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 18.92% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 6-7 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -5.26% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -7.49% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -11.93% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 2.44% ROI
Mets vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nelson Velazquez (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mets vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Alec Marsh (KC) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alec Marsh allowed a slugging percentage of .524 (152 Total Bases / 290 ABs) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .374 — 0 Percentile.
Alec Marsh allowed a slugging percentage of .524 (152 Total Bases / 290 ABs) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among in AL; League Avg: .374 — second Percentile.
Alec Marsh allowed a slugging percentage of .861 (118 Total Bases / 137 ABs) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .544 — 0 Percentile.
Alec Marsh allowed a slugging percentage of .861 (118 Total Bases / 137 ABs) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: .538 — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (34/170) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — fifth Percentile.
Sean Manaea has a strikeout rate of 37% (64 SO in 174 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs since last season — tied for 15th best among among 137 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — 89th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .118 (4 Total Bases / 34 ABs) this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .397 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (5/21) against Sean Manaea this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Royals were just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 12-85 (.124) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Royals were just 36-29 (.554) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Royals are just 16-42 (.276) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets are 149-14 (.914) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Mets are just 3-76 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
The Royals have won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 18 strikeouts in 125 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets are batting .304 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters are averaging just 3.58 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 2.18 (91.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.35 (708.0 IP) on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 2.19 (65.2 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 645 of 6,596 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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