- The Royals are +105 favorites vs the Pirates
- Royals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Pirates TV Channel: BSKC | SNPT | MLBN
The Kansas City Royals (+105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) on Friday, September 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Royals are 80-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 80-66 ATS.
Royals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
Royals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -115 | +105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -225 | U 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Royals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Paul DeJong has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 away games (+22.00 Units / 183% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+16.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 46 games (+8.40 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 games (+22.50 Units / 90% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+16.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+11.70 Units / 117% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+11.05 Units / 100% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 143 games (+10.39 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 away games (+7.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 107 games (+16.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games at home (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+11.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+9.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.20 Units / 62% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 82-65 against the Run Line (+6.79 Units / 3.41% ROI).
- 80-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 5.08% ROI
- 65-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.1 Units / -11.34% ROI
- 76-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 2.38% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 80-66 against the Run Line (+11.21 Units / 5.97% ROI).
- 70-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -4.42% ROI
- 71-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -3.85% ROI
- 70-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.12 Units / -4.47% ROI
Pirates vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
Pirates vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tommy Pham (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Marsh (KC) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alec Marsh has allowed a slugging percentage of .941 (16 Total Bases / 17 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — third Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed a slugging percentage of .941 (16 Total Bases / 17 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — 2nd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .378 — fourth Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed an OPS of 1.330 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .672 — third Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed an OBP of just .150 (20 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (2 games) — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .279 — 91st Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Luis Ortiz changeup was August 23rd, 2023. Hitters are 0 for their last 19 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Hunter Gaddis has the longest active streak at 26.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (130/224) against Luis Ortiz on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .267 (31-for-116) against Luis Ortiz on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .342 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (60/114) against Luis Ortiz when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Royals are just 24-102 (.190) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Royals are just 14-76 (.156) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Royals are just 18-33 (.353) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Royals are just 25-42 (.373) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Pirates are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 58-7 (.892) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Pirates are just 110-24 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Pirates are just 36-135 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 1,022 strikeouts in 5,434 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters have just 247 strikeouts in 1,310 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are slugging .254 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 447 strikeouts in 1,325 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 58 extra-base hits out of 211 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Pirates are batting just .236 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates hitters have 1,354 strikeouts in 5,318 PA’s (26%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have walked 2 of 107 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,636 of 18,066 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have 242 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd most in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.71 (1500.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 34% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Pirates vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
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