Royals vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 30, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Yankees (68-33) are -300 favorites vs the Royals (39-61)
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (1-5), 5.50 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (8-3), 2.47 ERA
  • Watch the game on YES

The Kansas City Royals (+230) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-300) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).

The Royals vs Yankees Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 39-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 49-52 ATS.

Royals vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+2.5 -120O 9 -115+230
Yankees -2.5 +100U 9 -105-300

Royals vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 56.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 32 away games (+12.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 53 games (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 38 away games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 52 games at home (+13.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+10.10 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+10.10 Units / 57% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 57% ROI)

Yankees vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Hicks 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Aaron Judge 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +375 0.5 -650

Yankees vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Hicks 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Aaron Judge 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
DJ LeMahieu 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Yankees vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Hicks 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Aaron Judge 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +120 0.5 -165

Yankees vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nestor Cortes 6.5 +110 6.5 -160
Jon Heasley 3.5 +125 3.5 -185
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 22 away games (+16.60 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+6.35 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 45 games at home (+17.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.05 Units / 18% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 45-55 against the Run Line (-19.25 Units / -14.64% ROI).

  • 39-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.95 Units / -14.78% ROI
  • 47-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -6.28% ROI
  • 49-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -2.58% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 49-52 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -4.17% ROI).

  • 68-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.65 Units / 7.24% ROI
  • 49-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -4.53% ROI
  • 49-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -4.27% ROI

Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .614 (27 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .374 — third Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (27/130) against Jon Heasley with runners in scoring position this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 31% — fifth Percentile.

Jon Heasley has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 57% (98/173) of opposing batters this season — 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 60% (564/936) this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.

Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 60% of the time (243/404) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

17 of Nestor Cortes’ 49 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

17 of Nestor Cortes’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (329/605) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Royals are just 2-26 (.071) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Royals are just 1-47 (.021) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Royals are just 4-45 (.082) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

The Royals are just 22-30 (.423) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Yankees are 8-20 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Yankees are 39-12 (.765) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Yankees are 6-27 (.182) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Yankees are 40-8 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Royals have won just 53% of home games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 78%.

Royals hitters have drawn 520 walks in 7,012 PA’s (7%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .369 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Royals hitters are averaging just 3.79 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

The Yankees have scored 179 runs in innings 7-9 this season — most in MLB.

Yankees hitters are slugging .735 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .586.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .405 (191 PA’s) against LHP this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.

The Royals have allowed 1.75 runs per game (175/100) in late innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Yankees pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 53% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Yankees vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D15
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.