- The Yankees (68-33) are -300 favorites vs the Royals (39-61)
- Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (1-5), 5.50 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (8-3), 2.47 ERA
- Watch the game on YES
The Kansas City Royals (+230) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-300) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).
The Royals vs Yankees Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 39-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 49-52 ATS.
Royals vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +2.5 -120 | O 9 -115 | +230 |
| Yankees | -2.5 +100 | U 9 -105 | -300 |
Royals vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 56.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 32 away games (+12.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 53 games (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 38 away games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 52 games at home (+13.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+10.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+10.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 57% ROI)
Yankees vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Yankees vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Aaron Judge | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Yankees vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
Yankees vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -160 |
| Jon Heasley | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -185 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 22 away games (+16.60 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+6.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 45 games at home (+17.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 45-55 against the Run Line (-19.25 Units / -14.64% ROI).
- 39-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.95 Units / -14.78% ROI
- 47-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -6.28% ROI
- 49-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -2.58% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 49-52 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -4.17% ROI).
- 68-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.65 Units / 7.24% ROI
- 49-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -4.53% ROI
- 49-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -4.27% ROI
Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .614 (27 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .374 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (27/130) against Jon Heasley with runners in scoring position this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 31% — fifth Percentile.
Jon Heasley has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 57% (98/173) of opposing batters this season — 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 60% (564/936) this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 60% of the time (243/404) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
17 of Nestor Cortes’ 49 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
17 of Nestor Cortes’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (329/605) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Royals are just 2-26 (.071) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Royals are just 1-47 (.021) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Royals are just 4-45 (.082) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Royals are just 22-30 (.423) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Yankees are 8-20 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Yankees are 39-12 (.765) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Yankees are 6-27 (.182) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Yankees are 40-8 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 53% of home games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 78%.
Royals hitters have drawn 520 walks in 7,012 PA’s (7%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .369 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Royals hitters are averaging just 3.79 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees have scored 179 runs in innings 7-9 this season — most in MLB.
Yankees hitters are slugging .735 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .405 (191 PA’s) against LHP this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
The Royals have allowed 1.75 runs per game (175/100) in late innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 53% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Yankees vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D10
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