Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 16, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Guardians (45-44) are -165 favorites vs the Tigers (37-54)
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Pineda (2-4), 3.58 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (5-5), 3.99 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Detroit Tigers (+135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-165) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Tigers are 37-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 46-43 ATS.

Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Tigers+1.5 -145O 8.5 -115+135
Guardians -1.5 +120U 8.5 -105-165

Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 55.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Tigers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.25 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jonathan Schoop has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.20 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jonathan Schoop has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.15 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Harold Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games at home (+14.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 28 games at home (+8.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.75 Units / 76% ROI)

Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Josh Naylor 0.5 +360 0.5 -650

Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +130 1.5 -190
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Josh Naylor 1.5 +180 1.5 -275

Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +120 0.5 -175
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Josh Naylor 0.5 +100 0.5 -140

Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Quantrill 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
Michael Pineda 2.5 -125 2.5 -115
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 88 games (+20.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+12.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 59 games (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 22 games (+1.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 58 games (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 58 games (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 70 games (+6.55 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 70 games (+5.20 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games (+4.00 Units / 7% ROI)

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 43-48 against the Run Line (-11.9 Units / -10.32% ROI).

  • 37-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -8.4% ROI
  • 32-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.7 Units / -26.73% ROI
  • 54-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.25 Units / 19.1% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 46-43 against the Run Line (+0.05 Units / 0.04% ROI).

  • 45-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 1.49% ROI
  • 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -7.58% ROI
  • 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -0.87% ROI

Michael Pineda has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 64 PAs) this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

Michael Pineda has walked 27 of 610 batters (4%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Michael Pineda has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 41% (16/39) of opposing batters this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (54/193) against Michael Pineda on non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (65/417) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has struck out just 12% (28/225) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (131/723) against Cal Quantrill this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 30% (58 SO in 192 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Tigers are just 15-30 (.333) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Tigers are just 3-19 (.136) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Tigers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Tigers are 30-2 (.938) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Guardians are 27-3 (.900) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Guardians are 29-1 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .883.

The Guardians are 24-19 (.558) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Guardians are 30-3 (.909) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .318 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .582 (1,613 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Tigers have scored three or more runs in an inning just 25 times (3%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Tigers hitters have 187 extra-base hits out of 613 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .613 (906 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Guardians hitters have just 625 strikeouts in 3,346 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% this month (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Tigers pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Tigers pitchers have walked 72 of 795 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .191 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

Guardians pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 5th hardest ball in play hit (114.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 116.3).

Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
  • Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.