- The Twins are +100 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Twins are 80-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 77-75 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 12-7, 3.90 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 11-8, 3.63 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -250 | O 7.5 -125 | +100 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +175 | U 7.5 +105 | -120 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.60 Units / 315% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+10.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bailey Ober has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.50 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games (+18.60 Units / 133% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 36 games (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Angel Martinez has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 72% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 85 games (+13.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 away games (+3.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 away games (+2.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+13.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 152 games (+10.82 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 70 games at home (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 70% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 69-82 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -9.1% ROI).
- 80-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.1 Units / -4.69% ROI
- 76-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 2.24% ROI
- 66-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.85 Units / -10.8% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 77-75 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 2.34% ROI).
- 87-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.82 Units / 5.49% ROI
- 67-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.95 Units / -9.49% ROI
- 75-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 0.81% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .125 (31-for-248) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .419 (26 GB hits out of 62 GBs) against Bailey Ober with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 189 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (144/425) against Bailey Ober this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (49/150) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 12% (2/16) against Tanner Bibee in his last start — tied for lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (72/257) against Tanner Bibee in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (148/435) against Tanner Bibee this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has a strikeout rate of 30% (79 SO in 261 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 87th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 26-36 (.419) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 26-103 (.202) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 206-5 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 138-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 24-29 (.453) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Guardians are 73-2 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Guardians are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 9-16 (.360) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .200 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .750 (8,870 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Twins are batting just .160 with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .324 (13,262 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The Guardians had an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 391 of 5,603 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 182 of 2,795 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .204 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 12% of the time after an opposing score this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.88 runs per game (133/152) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
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