- The – (101-44) are favorites vs the – (101-44)
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (8-4), 2.83 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (12-5), 3.51 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Monday, September 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 73-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 74-70 ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | O | ||
| Guardians | U |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+16.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 away games (+9.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+9.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games at home (+19.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 22 games at home (+16.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games at home (+15.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 28 games at home (+10.95 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -160 |
| Sonny Gray | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 47 games (+5.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 67-76 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -7.02% ROI).
- 73-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.36% ROI
- 68-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -2.28% ROI
- 66-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -5.73% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 74-70 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.33% ROI).
- 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.95 Units / 7.15% ROI
- 63-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.95 Units / -10.65% ROI
- 73-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 2.12% ROI
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (253/496) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (728/1,431) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (584/1,146) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .251 (48 Total Bases / 191 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .384 — 98th Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (106/708) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has struck out just 13% (48/379) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .459 (17-for-37) against Cal Quantrill — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 34% (114 SO in 338 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 65-22 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Twins are just 9-31 (.225) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Twins are just 15-27 (.357) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 40-35 (.533) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Guardians are 11-9 (.550) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 14-55 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters are slugging just .306 on the road this month (10 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Twins have barrels in 6% of PA’s since the start of last season (736/11,511) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Twins hitters are slugging .599 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .639 (1,401 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .338 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Guardians hitters have just 711 strikeouts in 4,101 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH since the start of last season (7,473 balls in play) — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Sandy León (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Megill (Twins): COVID-19, D10
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
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