Twins vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 19

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 19, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The (101-44) are favorites vs the (101-44)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (8-4), 2.83 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (12-5), 3.51 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Minnesota Twins () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Monday, September 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 73-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 74-70 ATS.

Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins O
Guardians U

Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 58.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+16.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 away games (+9.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+9.30 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games at home (+19.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 22 games at home (+16.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games at home (+15.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 28 games at home (+10.95 Units / 26% ROI)

Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Josh Naylor 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Myles Straw 0.5 +1350 0.5

Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Josh Naylor 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Myles Straw 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Josh Naylor 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Myles Straw 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Quantrill 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
Sonny Gray 3.5 -140 3.5 -105
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 47 games (+5.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 67-76 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -7.02% ROI).

  • 73-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.36% ROI
  • 68-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -2.28% ROI
  • 66-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -5.73% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 74-70 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.33% ROI).

  • 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.95 Units / 7.15% ROI
  • 63-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.95 Units / -10.65% ROI
  • 73-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 2.12% ROI

Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (253/496) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (728/1,431) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (584/1,146) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .251 (48 Total Bases / 191 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .384 — 98th Percentile.

Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (106/708) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has struck out just 13% (48/379) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .459 (17-for-37) against Cal Quantrill — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 34% (114 SO in 338 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 65-22 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Twins are just 9-31 (.225) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Twins are just 15-27 (.357) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 40-35 (.533) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Guardians are 11-9 (.550) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 14-55 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Twins are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Twins hitters are slugging just .306 on the road this month (10 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.

The Twins have barrels in 6% of PA’s since the start of last season (736/11,511) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.

Twins hitters are slugging .599 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .639 (1,401 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .338 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Guardians hitters have just 711 strikeouts in 4,101 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH since the start of last season (7,473 balls in play) — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Sandy León (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): COVID-19, D10
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.