- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Minnesota Twins (+130) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Twins vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 1-4 ATS.
Twins vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | O 7 -105 | +130 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +140 | U 7 -115 | -155 |
Twins vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Marlins vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Kenta Maeda | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 166 games (+11.05 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 91 of their last 166 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 85 away games (+2.50 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in their last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 98% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 97 of their last 167 games (+18.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 94 of their last 164 games (+17.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 167 games (+7.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 4-0 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 113.75% ROI).
- 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 67.8% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -5.56% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -3.49% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-4 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -67.07% ROI).
- 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -60% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -22.22% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 14.29% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kenta Maeda has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to August 8th, 2021 — John Brebbia has the longest active streak at 11.
Kenta Maeda has thrown off-speed pitches 72% of the time (1,074/1,490) vs left-handed batters since the 2020 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (34/188) against Kenta Maeda on breaking pitches since the 2020 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has thrown off-speed pitches 70% of the time (1,934/2,761) since the 2020 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara allowed 24 stolen bases in 2022 — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of 55% (787/1,420) against Sandy Alcantara in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (1,027/1,420) against right-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (679/939) in two strike counts in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 11-28 (.282) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 25-125 (.167) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Twins were just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Marlins are just 104-18 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins were just 51-14 (.785) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Marlins were just 34-47 (.420) at home in 2022 — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins were just 33-65 (.337) when underdogs in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have 182 extra-base hits out of 454 total hits (40%) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Twins have scored first in 62% of their road games since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 835 strikeouts in 3,035 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (3,035 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .633 (3,035 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Marlins hitters struck out 364 times in 1,316 PA’s (28%) against LHP in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Twins pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 41% of their games in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 18% of the time since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
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