- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (-135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Twins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 10-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 9-9 ATS.
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -120 | -135 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | U 9 +100 | +110 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.70 Units / 95% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games at home (+7.85 Units / 157% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Justin Turner | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Justin Turner | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Justin Turner | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Joe Ryan | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 10-7 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 17.73% ROI).
- 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 16.03% ROI
- 5-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -31.93% ROI
- 10-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 24.86% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 9-9 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -0.91% ROI).
- 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -7.92% ROI
- 12-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 27.34% ROI
- 6-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.4 Units / -37.09% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has allowed an OBP of just .171 (70 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .310 — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strikeout rate of 37% (26 SO in 70 PAs) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has struck out 45% (18/40) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed an OBP of just .200 (40 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .313 — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (9/38) against Corey Kluber this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 15% (4/26) against Corey Kluber in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 71% (15/21) against Corey Kluber vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 40% — second Percentile.
Corey Kluber has an average fastball velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 11-38 (.224) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 20-36 (.357) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Red Sox are just 10-12 (.455) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 7-71 (.090) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .212 (100 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .194 (324 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .391 (324 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Twins are batting just .107 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .518 (56 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .426 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Red Sox are batting just .212 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.17 (59.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (722.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 9.56 (16.0 IP) on the road over the past seven days (2 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.52.
Red Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
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