- The Twins are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Twins vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Twins / Red Sox TV Channel: BSNO | NESN
The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Friday, September 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Twins are 80-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 71-82 ATS.
Twins vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: David Festa 2-6, 5.08 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Fitts 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -105 | -115 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -115 | -105 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.60 Units / 232% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+9.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 33 games (+13.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.30 Units / 51% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 87 games (+13.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 away games (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 36 games (+36.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 70-83 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -8.96% ROI).
- 80-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.2 Units / -5.61% ROI
- 77-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.6 Units / 2.16% ROI
- 67-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -10.71% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 71-82 against the Run Line (-20.15 Units / -9.99% ROI).
- 76-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -5.28% ROI
- 75-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.8 Units / -1.07% ROI
- 70-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -7.1% ROI
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Festa (MIN) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Richard Fitts (BOS) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Festa has walked 4 of 27 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (8-for-22) against David Festa when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .242 — eighth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 48% of David Festa’s pitches (38/79) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 59% — second Percentile.
David Festa has thrown off-speed pitches 73% of the time (58/79) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total NonFB; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Richard Fitts has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Kevin Kelly has the longest active streak at 25.0.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (9/73) against Richard Fitts this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Richard Fitts has thrown his slider 49% of the time (77/156) this month (2 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Richard Fitts has a strikeout rate of just 10% (4 SO in 42 PAs) this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 8-14 (.364) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Twins are 138-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 26-37 (.413) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 35-36 (.493) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are just 37-38 (.493) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Red Sox are just 16-64 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 57-197 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have drawn 103 walks in 1,549 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .745 (1,818 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .331 (2,795 PA’s) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .778 (5,820 PA’s) at home since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 494 strikeouts in 1,753 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .388 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Red Sox hitters have 862 strikeouts in 3,331 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have 1,232 strikeouts in 4,878 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 396 of 5,681 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 183 of 2,815 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 84 of 1,359 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 89 of 1,372 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 194 of 2,807 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
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