Twins vs White Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The White Sox (80-80) are -145 favorites vs the Twins (77-83)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Josh Winder (4-5), 4.31 ERA
  • White Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito (10-9), 5.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-CHI

The Minnesota Twins (+120) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-145) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.

The White Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Twins vs White Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 77-83 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 69-90 ATS.

Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -185O 7.5 -115+120
White Sox -1.5 +150U 7.5 -105-145

Twins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 27 games (+16.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+15.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 43 of his last 69 games (+12.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)

Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 72 games at home (+16.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
  • Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+15.20 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+15.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Elvis Andrus has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+14.90 Units / 38% ROI)

White Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
AJ Pollock 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Andrew Vaughn 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Eloy Jimenez 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Elvis Andrus 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Gavin Sheets 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

White Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
AJ Pollock 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Andrew Vaughn 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Eloy Jimenez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Elvis Andrus 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Gavin Sheets 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

White Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
AJ Pollock 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Andrew Vaughn 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Eloy Jimenez 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Elvis Andrus 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Gavin Sheets 0.5 +160 0.5 -225

White Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Lucas Giolito 5.5 -130 5.5 -110
Josh Winder 3.5 +115 3.5 -160
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.65 Units / 71% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 74-86 against the Run Line (-16.55 Units / -8.41% ROI).

  • 77-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -8.14% ROI
  • 72-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.35% ROI
  • 76-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -1.96% ROI

White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 69-90 against the Run Line (-23.5 Units / -12.53% ROI).

  • 80-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.1 Units / -9.61% ROI
  • 70-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -8.85% ROI
  • 79-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 1.53% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (5/20) against Josh Winder — 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (10/34) against Josh Winder — 8th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.

Josh Winder has allowed a slugging percentage of .391 (9 Total Bases / 23 ABs) with two-strikes — 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .232 — 10th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .261 (6-for-23) against Josh Winder with two-strikes — 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .148 — eighth Percentile.

Lucas Giolito: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (127/438) against Lucas Giolito this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 65% (13/20) against Lucas Giolito against right-handed batters — tied for highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (155/515) against Lucas Giolito since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (250/903) against Lucas Giolito since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox

The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Twins are just 10-42 (.192) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Twins are just 31-47 (.397) on the road this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The White Sox are just 7-40 (.149) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The White Sox are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The White Sox are 27-6 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The White Sox are 73-23 (.760) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Twins are batting .418 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .257.

The Twins have an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Twins hitters are slugging just .342 versus relief pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .378.

The Twins have 760 barreled balls since the start of last season — 4th most in MLB.

The White Sox are batting just .089 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .159.

White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .149 (241 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.

White Sox hitters have 94 extra-base hits out of 320 total hits (just 29%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

White Sox hitters have drawn 39 walks in 769 PA’s (5%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Twins pitchers have walked 25 of 460 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against White Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

White Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
  • Luis Robert (White Sox): Wrist, D10
  • Michael Kopech (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy Anderson (White Sox): Finger, D10
  • Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60
  • Bernardo Zavala (White Sox): Concussion, D7
  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Luis Arraez (Twins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
  • Sandy León (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Oblique, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.