- The Yankees (81-54) are -200 favorites vs the Twins (68-65)
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (10-7), 3.87 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (10-7), 3.27 ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The Minnesota Twins (+165) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-200) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Twins vs Yankees Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 68-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 58-74 ATS.
Twins vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -140 | O 6.5 -115 | +165 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +115 | U 6.5 -105 | -200 |
Twins vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 39 of his last 53 games (+16.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 51 games (+11.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 away games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+13.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 45% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 74 of their last 131 games (+12.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 63 games (+8.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 away games (+7.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 60-71 against the Run Line (-12.8 Units / -8.13% ROI).
- 68-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -1.98% ROI
- 61-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.15 Units / -2.88% ROI
- 60-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.25 Units / -5% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 58-74 against the Run Line (-19.25 Units / -12.48% ROI).
- 80-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -1.74% ROI
- 59-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.95 Units / -10.98% ROI
- 68-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +3 Units / 2.06% ROI
Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 27 of Joe Ryan’s 142 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 19%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (90/328) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (44/158) against Joe Ryan this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (46/170) against Joe Ryan this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gerrit Cole has located his pitches away 62% of the time (1,150/1,864) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
52% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (289/767) against Gerrit Cole in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has located his pitches away 59% of the time (1,580/2,666) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Twins are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 40-29 (.580) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Twins are just 10-34 (.227) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Twins are just 5-8 (.385) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Yankees are 46-20 (.697) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Yankees are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Yankees are 7-43 (.140) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Yankees are 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .603 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
Twins hitters are slugging .487 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Twins hitters have 3 strikeouts in 8 PA’s (38%) against LHP over the past seven days (2 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .320 (3,547 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging .630 at home over the last 14 days (1 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Yankees are batting just .302 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Yankees hitters have drawn 1,002 walks in 9,626 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 110 walks in 1,102 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 206 of 3,158 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, Day-to-Day
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, D10
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Leg, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, D15
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
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