White Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The White Sox (41-43) are -115 favorites vs the Guardians (41-42)
  • White Sox starting pitcher: Michael Lynn (1-1), 5.33 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (4-5), 3.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Chicago White Sox (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Monday, July 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The White Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The White Sox vs Guardians Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the White Sox are 41-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 42-41 ATS.

White Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
White Sox-1.5 +135O 9 +100-115
Guardians +1.5 -160U 9 -120-105

White Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 60.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the White Sox and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best White Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 43 games (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 41 games (+15.55 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+9.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Luis Robert has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+6.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Luis Robert has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+6.00 Units / 34% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Franmil Reyes has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+5.35 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.10 Units / 32% ROI)

Guardians vs White Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Josh Naylor 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Guardians vs White Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +150 1.5 -225
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Josh Naylor 1.5 +180 1.5 -275

Guardians vs White Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Josh Naylor 0.5 -105 0.5 -135

Guardians vs White Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Quantrill 3.5 -185 3.5 +125
Lance Lynn 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 31 away games (+12.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 31 away games (+10.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 46 of their last 84 games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.25 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 52 games (+6.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games at home (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 64 games (+3.35 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+2.60 Units / 11% ROI)

White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 39-45 against the Run Line (-7.4 Units / -7.21% ROI).

  • 41-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -9.36% ROI
  • 40-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -3.16% ROI
  • 40-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -3.91% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 42-41 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -1.74% ROI).

  • 41-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -0.91% ROI
  • 38-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -5.77% ROI
  • 39-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -2.97% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (42/245) against Lance Lynn since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Lance Lynn has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (247/587) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 10% (35/357) against Lance Lynn since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 15% — fourth Percentile.

Lance Lynn has allowed a slugging percentage of just .305 (107 Total Bases / 351 ABs) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .413 — 95th Percentile.

Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (57/385) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 31% (55 SO in 179 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 8% (6 SO in 75 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has allowed an OPS of .670 (179 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .475 — fourth Percentile.

White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The White Sox are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

The White Sox are 74-13 (.851) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The White Sox are 10-3 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The White Sox are 7-2 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox

The Guardians are 8-36 (.182) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 26-1 (.963) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .887.

The Guardians are 25-1 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Guardians are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The White Sox are batting .288 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

White Sox hitters have 75 extra-base hits out of 320 total hits (just 23%) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .429 (247 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .653.

The White Sox are batting just .130 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .225.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .608 (889 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .320 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Guardians hitters have just 582 strikeouts in 3,130 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Guardians pitchers have walked 10 of 85 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (10 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Guardians have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians vs. White Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
  • Yasmani Grandal (White Sox): Back, D10
  • Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
  • Vincent Velasquez (White Sox): Finger, D15
  • Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Bummer (White Sox): Lat, D15
  • Jacob Burger (White Sox): Hand, D10
  • Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.