- The Yankees (66-31) are -115 favorites vs the Mets (59-37)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (3-2), 3.24 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (7-2), 2.55 ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The New York Yankees (-115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-105) on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Yankees vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 66-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 50-46 ATS.
Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -115 | -115 |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -105 | -105 |
Yankees vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 away games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 31 away games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Matt Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Miguel Andujar has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+6.35 Units / 127% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+18.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 30 games at home (+12.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+11.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- J.D. Davis has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.65 Units / 88% ROI)
Mets vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Mets vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Mets vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Mets vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -155 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 87 games (+17.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+16.77 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 96 games (+12.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+7.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 58 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 47-50 against the Run Line (-4.7 Units / -4.15% ROI).
- 66-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 7.67% ROI
- 47-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -4.48% ROI
- 47-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -4.12% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 50-46 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 3.73% ROI).
- 59-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.7 Units / 9.29% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 1.55% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -9.71% ROI
Jordan Montgomery: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (65/170) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 94th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has attempted to pick off a runner at second base 7 timesthis season — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has a strike rate of 72% (188/260) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has walked 20 of 437 batters (5%) this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .234 (15 Total Bases / 64 ABs) this month (3 games) — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 100 of Taijuan Walker’s 441 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .301 (101 Total Bases / 336 ABs) this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .394 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% (23/43) against Taijuan Walker this month (3 games) — 14th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 87th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Yankees are 7-18 (.280) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Yankees are 37-12 (.755) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Yankees are 5-25 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mets are 42-4 (.913) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Mets are 30-20 (.600) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Mets are 50-5 (.909) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .887.
The Mets are 50-3 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.284 (701 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.063.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .762 (3,042 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Yankees hitters are slugging .736 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (2,488 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
Mets hitters have 195 extra-base hits out of 631 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 60% of the time at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
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