- The Yankees (71-41) are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox (55-58)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán (1-2), 5.09 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (5-3), 4.22 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Friday, August 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 71-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 56-57 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -105 | -115 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -115 | -105 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 73.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+12.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 away games (+9.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+9.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.85 Units / 65% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 27 games at home (+10.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
| Domingo German | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+12.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+7.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 102 games (+7.40 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 84 games (+7.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 93 games (+5.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 84 games (+2.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.60 Units / 30% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 52-60 against the Run Line (-9.8 Units / -7.51% ROI).
- 71-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 1.93% ROI
- 55-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -1.98% ROI
- 52-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -6.85% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 56-57 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -0.97% ROI).
- 55-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units / -6.78% ROI
- 51-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -5.19% ROI
- 53-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -2.08% ROI
Domingo Germán: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Domingo German has a strikeout rate of just 17% (4 SO in 23 PAs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Domingo German has struck out just 8% (2/26) of left-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.
Domingo German has a strikeout rate of just 10% (4 SO in 42 PAs) this month (2 games) — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Domingo German has allowed an OBP of .600 (15 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this month (2 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .326 — first Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 10% (10/96) against Nathan Eovaldi this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has a strikeout rate of 60% (9 SO in 15 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (22/144) against Nathan Eovaldi on non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 6 of 287 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 8-25 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Yankees are 41-15 (.732) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Yankees are 6-32 (.158) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Yankees are 10-5 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Red Sox are just 5-8 (.385) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 1-45 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Red Sox are just 6-24 (.200) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .761 (3,219 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
The Yankees have scored 192 runs in innings 7-9 this season — most in MLB.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .300 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.1 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.6
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 300 of 4,108 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.67 (1238.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Red Sox pitchers have won 34% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
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