- The Yankees (71-42) are -155 favorites vs the Red Sox (56-58)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Francelis Montas (4-9), 3.59 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (3-4), 4.29 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The New York Yankees (-155) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+125) on Saturday, August 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Boston.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 71-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 57-57 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +100 | O 9 -110 | -155 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -120 | U 9 -110 | +125 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+11.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 away games (+10.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.55 Units / 71% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+12.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+10.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 59 games (+6.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 103 games (+6.25 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 85 games (+6.05 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games at home (+5.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 94 games (+4.75 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 85 games (+3.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 80 games (+2.20 Units / 2% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 52-61 against the Run Line (-10.8 Units / -8.21% ROI).
- 71-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 1.37% ROI
- 55-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -2.96% ROI
- 53-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.4 Units / -5.95% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 57-57 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.25% ROI).
- 56-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -6.02% ROI
- 51-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.7 Units / -6.13% ROI
- 54-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -1.23% ROI
Francelis Montas: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has thrown fastballs 54% of the time (1,319/2,438) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 22% (125/579) against Frankie Montas since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
78% of Frankie Montas’ non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 94th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 32% (401/1,255) against Frankie Montas since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 96th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (53/164) against Kutter Crawford this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% (4/24) against Kutter Crawford against right-handed batters — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 21% (3/14) against Kutter Crawford — tied for 11th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown off-speed pitches 62% of the time (601/969) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total NonFB; League Avg: 47% — 96th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 8-25 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Yankees are 41-15 (.732) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Yankees are 12-9 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Yankees are 24-4 (.857) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 2-45 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Red Sox are just 6-24 (.200) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Red Sox are just 5-8 (.385) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 3-43 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees have scored 192 runs in late innings this season — most in MLB.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Yankees have scored 1.82 runs per game (206/113) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.40.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .759 (3,230 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .181 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Red Sox hitters have grounded into 10 double plays in 36 opportunities (28%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,182 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.1 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.6
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Red Sox have won 41% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH (2,912 batted balls) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
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