Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (59-23) are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox (45-37)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (7-2), 2.98 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (3-2), 3.11 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Yankees (-175) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+145) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 59-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 45-37 ATS.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 -110O 9 -115-175
Red Sox +1.5 -110U 9 -105+145

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 56.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.30 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+2.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.20 Units / 89% ROI)

Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Jarren Duran 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Franchy Cordero 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Jarren Duran 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jarren Duran 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Winckowski 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
Gerrit Cole 7.5 -110 7.5 -135
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 72 games (+24.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 81 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+6.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 78 games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 53 games (+13.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+8.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 81 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 42-40 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 2.47% ROI).

  • 59-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.9 Units / 13.7% ROI
  • 35-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -14.97% ROI
  • 44-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 6.61% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 45-37 against the Run Line (+9.85 Units / 9.68% ROI).

  • 45-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 1.22% ROI
  • 32-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.25 Units / -13.51% ROI
  • 41-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 7.53% ROI

Left-handed batters are hitting just .134 (20-for-149) against Gerrit Cole this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (21/49) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has located his fastball away 63% of the time (473/748) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has struck out 36% (61/167) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Joshua Winckowski: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Josh Winckowski has not allowed a walk in his last 59 PAs against a RHH dating back to May 28th — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 119.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (14/22) against Josh Winckowski — 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (22/34) against Josh Winckowski — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 9.0 innings pitched — Lucas Gilbreath has the longest active streak at 23.0.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 6-15 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .110.

The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Yankees are 34-4 (.895) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Yankees are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .669.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.

The Red Sox are 24-19 (.558) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.

The Red Sox are just 1-27 (.036) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .110.

The Red Sox are 18-5 (.783) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Yankees are batting just .287 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

The Yankees have scored 148 runs in late innings this season — most in MLB.

Yankees hitters have drawn 202 walks in 1,536 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .261 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .302 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.8

Yankees pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 60% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 33 of 238 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.8 MPH this season (2,006 balls in play) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.37 (379.1 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.