Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 14

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 14, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees (86-56) are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox (69-73)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (9-4), 2.73 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (1-5), 5.78 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The New York Yankees (-130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Wednesday, September 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 85-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 71-66 ATS.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +125O 9 -120-130
Red Sox +1.5 -150U 9 +100+110

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Wednesday‘s matchup with confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 13 away games (+17.55 Units / 71% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+12.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+11.80 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+20.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 56 games (+18.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+16.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+13.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 49% ROI)

Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Connor Wong 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +333 0.5 -600

Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Christian Arroyo 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Connor Wong 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Connor Wong 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +135 0.5 -200

Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brayan Bello 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
Nestor Cortes 4.5 -140 4.5 +100
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 87% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.20 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 122 games (+11.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 37% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 60-77 against the Run Line (-19.45 Units / -12.21% ROI).

  • 85-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -0.66% ROI
  • 65-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.95 Units / -7.16% ROI
  • 69-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -1.69% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 71-66 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 0.72% ROI).

  • 67-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -6.98% ROI
  • 63-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.65 Units / -5.66% ROI
  • 66-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -1.82% ROI

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 62% of the time (233/377) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

28 of Nestor Cortes’ 80 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (396/715) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (491/903) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Brayan Bello: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Brayan Bello has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 20.1 innings pitched — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Brayan Bello has not allowed a HR in any of his last seven starts dating back to July 6th — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 11.

Brayan Bello has not allowed a home run in any of the last 37.1 innings he’s appeared — Zac Gallen has the longest active streak at 65.1.

Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of just .158 (6 Total Bases / 38 ABs) this month (2 games) — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — 95th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 10-37 (.213) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Yankees are 8-44 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 38-10 (.792) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Yankees are 15-11 (.577) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are 144-47 (.754) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Red Sox are just 152-21 (.879) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are slugging just .189 against LHP this month (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.

The Yankees are batting just .155 on the road over the last 14 days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

25% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .754 (8,042 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Yankees pitchers have walked 212 of 3,225 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 894 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.23 (540.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 7% of innings played this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, Day-to-Day
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
  • Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D60
  • Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, D10
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Leg, D15
  • Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.