- Based on preseason odds, the Buffalo Bills are -185 to make the postseason in 2024-25.
- Buffalo has won the AFC East four years in a row.
- Why bettors should trust Buffalo’s defense to guide them to the playoffs.
Based on NFL odds and Bills playoff odds, the Buffalo Bills are predicted to make the postseason this year.
Top wide receiver Stefon Diggs is the notable departure for Buffalo, which has won the AFC East four years on the bounce. At -185, their implied probability of making the playoffs is 64.9%.
Comparatively, Buffalo is +150 to miss the playoffs next season for an implied probability of 40%.
Prediction: Will the Buffalo Bills Make the Playoffs?
I predict the Buffalo Bills will make the postseason.
The Bills’ brutal schedule includes three unique games against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions. Meanwhile, the Jets and Dolphins play comparatively easier schedules.
However, I’m choosing to trust their defense. Despite facing a number of injuries — including a season-ender to Matt Milano — they still ranked 11th in defensive EPA per play.
The Diggs departure is noteworthy, but Buffalo ranked sixth in offensive EPA per play under Joe Brady.
Buffalo Bills Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | -185 | 64.9% |
| Week 2 | -185 | 64.9% |
| Week 3 | -350 | 77.8% |
| Week 4 | -750 | 88.2% |
| Week 5 | -750 | 88.2% |
| Week 6 | -700 | 87.5% |
| Week 7 | -1100 | 91.7% |
| Week 8 | -1400 | 93.3% |
| Week 9 | -5000 | 98% |
| Week 10 | -10000 | 99% |
| Week 11 | Off the Board | 100% |
| Week 12 | Off the Board | 100% |
AFC East Odds to Make the Playoffs, Preseason
| Team | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -185 | 64.9% |
| Miami Dolphins | -155 | 60.8% |
| New York Jets | -145 | 59.2% |
| New England Patriots | +900 | 10% |
When Was the Last Time the Buffalo Bills Won the Super Bowl?
The Bills are one of 12 NFL Teams to Have Never Won the Super Bowl.
However, the Bills made four consecutive Super Bowl appearances during the ‘90s, but fell in all four.
Buffalo Bills Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Week 2 | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Week 3 | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Week 4 | +800 | 11.1% |
| Week 5 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Week 6 | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Week 7 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Week 8 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Week 9 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Week 10 | +800 | 11.1% |
| Week 11 | +750 | 11.8% |
| Week 12 | +650 | 13.3% |
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