- The Bills’ 2024 preseason win total is set at 10.5 wins at BetMGM.
- Buffalo has won at least 10 games in five straight seasons.
- The case for Buffalo to finish under their win total.
For the 2024 NFL season, the Bills win total sits at 10.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
A mainstay of the playoffs recently, Buffalo’s turnover in the offseason is notable.
Arguably most importantly, Stefon Diggs trades the frigid Buffalo temperatures for warmer climates in Houston.
The Bills also released both Mitch Morse and Tre’Davious White, while Gabe Davis, Leonard Floyd and Dane Jackson departed in free agency.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Buffalo’s 2024 win total.
Bills Win Total Odds
The Bills’ season win total is set at 10.5 games.
Oddsmakers expect the under is the more likely outcome. Currently, Buffalo is -150 to win 10 or fewer games, an implied probability of 60%.
Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with 11 or more wins is +125, an implied probability of 44.4%.
Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:
- Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins
- Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Wins
- New York Jets: 9.5 Wins
- New England Patriots: 4.5 Wins
Bills Win Total Prediction 2024
LEAN Bills Under 10.5 Wins (-140)
I rate this as one of the most difficult win totals to evaluate.
For all of their turnover this offseason, I maintain Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the division, and Sean McDermott is the best head coach.
On the offensive side of the ball, there’s a key question with Buffalo: does Allen’s ability render the receiving group slightly less important compared to other teams?
There’s a case to be made the answer is yes, especially when you factor in Buffalo ranked 27th in passing play percentage last season. The previous year, they ranked 11th.
Additionally, despite losing the 11th-most adjusted games to injury on the defensive side of the ball last year, Buffalo ranked 11th in defensive EPA per play.
That marks two straight seasons the Bills finished inside the top-12 in that category.
All that said, this remains a team that only cleared this number by a game last season and played 12 games that were decided by seven or fewer points.
Pair that with a difficult, first-place schedule in a division with two other great teams, and I would bet the under or nothing on Buffalo.
Bills Over Under Wins, Live Odds
| Week Number | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | 10.5 | +125 | -150 |
| Week 2 | 10.5 | +135 | -175 |
| Week 3 | 10.5 | -130 | +110 |
Most Wins in Bills History
The Bills’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 13, which happened in 1990, 1991, 2020, and 2022.
In 1990 and 1991, the Bills lost in the Super Bowl and remain among the 12 NFL teams that have never won the Super Bowl.
Fewest Wins in Bills History
The Bills’ franchise record for fewest regular-season wins is one; they went 1-13 in 1971, the team’s second year in the NFL.
They also won only two games in 1976, 1984, and 1985.
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