- The Chiefs are -7.5 point favorites vs the Chargers
- Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Inglewood, CA.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).
The Chiefs vs. Chargers Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -7 -115 | 39.5 -105 | -350 |
| Chargers | +7 -105 | 39.5 -115 | +280 |
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 81.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Chargers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.75 Units / 76% ROI)
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.85 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- Hayden Hurst has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Hayden Hurst has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 39% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chargers vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 36.5 -110 | 36.5 -120 |
| Justin Watson (KC) | 15.5 -110 | 15.5 -120 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 76.5 -115 | 76.5 -120 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -120 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 10.5 -120 | 10.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chargers vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 18.5 -115 | 18.5 -115 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+2.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have scored first in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI).
- Chiefs are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 50% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Chiefs are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 28.13% ROI).
- Chargers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 21.05% ROI
- Chargers are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Chargers are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .264.
The Chiefs are 16-6 (.727) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .298.
The Chiefs are 9-4 (.692) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .285.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers were 1-4 (.200) when playing in cold weather last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Chargers were winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Chargers are winless (0-5) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .164.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of just 10.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 5.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Chiefs have averaged 0.38 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 0.38 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have been successful on 68.8% of plays they have ran against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 56.5% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 70.0% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed successful plays on 68.4% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 67% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chiefs have averaged -1.27 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.55.
The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 64% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers ran 7% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Chargers went three and out on 60% of their drives in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Chargers ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 3 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chargers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has forced 4 fumbles this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Offenses facing the Chiefs targeted TEs 33% of the time (35 Pass Attempts/106 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 7% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Offenses facing the Chargers targeted RBs 30% of the time (27 Pass Attempts/91 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 11% of opponent drives in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Chargers defense allowed 17 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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