- The Chiefs are -7.5 point favorites vs the Chargers
- Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Inglewood, CA.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. Chargers Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.
Bet now on Chargers vs Chiefs & all NFL games with BetMGM
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -400 |
| Chargers | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +310 |
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Chargers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 69.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Chargers vs Chiefs and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.75 Units / 76% ROI)
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.85 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- Hayden Hurst has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Hayden Hurst has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 39% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chargers vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Watson (KC) | 15.5 -115 | 15.5 -115 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 75.5 -120 | 75.5 -110 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -120 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 45.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chargers vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 18.5 -110 | 18.5 -120 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+2.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have scored first in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI).
- Chiefs are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 50% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Chiefs are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 28.13% ROI).
- Chargers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 21.05% ROI
- Chargers are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Chargers are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .264.
The Chiefs are 16-6 (.727) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .298.
The Chiefs are 9-4 (.692) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .285.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers were 1-4 (.200) when playing in cold weather last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Chargers were winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Chargers are winless (0-5) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .164.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of just 10.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 5.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Chiefs have averaged 0.38 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 0.38 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have been successful on 68.8% of plays they have ran against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 56.5% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 70.0% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed successful plays on 68.4% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 67% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chiefs have averaged -1.27 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.55.
The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 64% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers ran 7% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Chargers went three and out on 60% of their drives in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Chargers ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 3 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chargers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has forced 4 fumbles this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Offenses facing the Chiefs targeted TEs 33% of the time (35 Pass Attempts/106 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 7% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Offenses facing the Chargers targeted RBs 30% of the time (27 Pass Attempts/91 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 11% of opponent drives in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Chargers defense allowed 17 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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