- The Chiefs are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Bills.
- Patrick Mahomes is 27-9-1 ATS when listed between -3 and +4.5 in his career.
- My Chiefs vs. Bills prediction is for Kansas City to reach the Super Bowl.
On Sunday in Kansas City, the Bills will try to end the Chiefs’ bid for a three-peat.
Kansas City cruised to victory on Saturday against the Texans with a 23-14 win. While the Chiefs won outright, they failed to cover the closing spread thanks to a last-gasp safety.
Buffalo survived a two-point conversion attempt to capture a 27-25 win over the Ravens. Now, they’ll look to beat the Chiefs for the second time this season after winning 30-21 in Buffalo.
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AFC Championship Odds: Chiefs vs. Bills
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction
Based on Patrick Mahomes’ strong record as s short favorite and the Bills’ lackluster defensive play, my Chiefs vs. Bills prediction is the Chiefs Moneyline (-125).
The prominent takeaway from Buffalo’s win over Baltimore in the divisional round? Their defense could not get off the field without the Ravens getting in their own way.
Baltimore never punted once in Buffalo. They either drove the field and scored or turned the ball over to Buffalo.
So much had to go right for Buffalo to win that game. Lamar Jackson fumbled on the Bills 28-yard line, and the Ravens missed a pair of two-point conversions.
Ask yourself whether you think the same will transpire for Kansas City, which also has an extra day of rest over the Bills, who are forced to travel for Sunday’s game.
There’s also the small matter that Mahomes rarely fails ATS as a short favorite.
For his career, the three-time Super Bowl MVP is 27-9-1 ATS when listed between -3 and +4.5, including 14-7 ATS between -3 and -0.5.
Meaningful differences exist from the Week 11 meeting between these teams.
Isiah Pacheco missed that game for Kansas City, while corner Jaylen Watson also failed to feature.
Buffalo sustained some key injuries that could further affect their defensive outlook on Sunday. Both Taylor Rapp and Taron Johnson exited with injuries.
The Bills’ struggles defending the middle also continued as Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined to record nine catches for 134 yards and a touchdown.
If the Bills can’t defend playoff Travis Kelce, their defense likely struggles once again. As a result, back the Chiefs to reach their third consecutive Super Bowl.
Betting Chiefs vs. Bills: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 56% | 38% | 71% | 67% |
| Chiefs | 44% | 62% | 29% | 33% |
