- The Dolphins are a 6.5-point home favorite against the Jets.
- The Jets have lost each of their last 11 games in Florida.
- My Dolphins vs. Jets prediction is the Jets to cover the spread.
The Dolphins seek a fourth win in five games with a home divisional contest against the Jets.
Miami played on Thanksgiving in Green Bay and lost 30-17, ending a three-game winning streak. This season, Miami is 2-2 SU in divisional play, with both wins over New England.
The Jets, once again, received market support in their Week 13 game against the Seahawks. However, a 26-21 defeat resigned New York to a third straight loss.
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NFL Week 14 Odds: Dolphins vs. Jets
2024-12-08T18:00:00ZJets at Dolphins
Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction
Based on the Jets’ difficult defensive schedule and Miami’s weak record against the run, my Dolphins vs. Jets prediction is the Jets Spread (+6.5, -110).
The Jets look like they’ve quit on the season, and this sizable spread likely indicates New York’s level of interest.
For New York to cover this number, it likely comes down to their offensive play in Miami.
Upon first glance, the metrics aren’t pretty for the Jets. They’re 22nd in offensive DVOA and 21st in offensive EPA per play.
But the strength of opposing defenses must be acknowledged. Entering Week 14, the Jets have played the fourth-hardest set of opposing defenses.
On Sunday, the Jets play a weak Miami defense. The Dolphins rank 19th in defensive DVOA having faced the 12th-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
There’s also a clear way to attack the Dolphins based on Miami’s recent performances.
In Weeks 1-7, the Dolphins ranked 11th in dropback EPA per play and success rate. Since Week 8, they’ve fallen to 17th and 26th in those categories.
Some of that can be attributed to constantly playing with a lead, but the fact remains Miami’s defense isn’t good enough to cover this big a number.
History also likes this spot for the Jets.
Dogs between +2.5 and +9.5 on a one-, two- or three-game losing streak are 46-23-1 ATS (66.7%), assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s game number falls between 8 and 15
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 30% and 50%
- The favorite is on a one-game losing streak
When those dogs fall between +6 and +8: 10-3 ATS, including 4-0 in divisional contests.
As a result, it’s the Jets or nothing for me on Sunday in Miami.
Betting Dolphins vs. Jets: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Dolphins vs. Jets public betting data and insights.
