Falcons vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

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Vikings player number 18 running with a NFL ball game in hand.

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 04, 2024, 2:06 PM

The Vikings are -5.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (6-6-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (10-2-0) on Dec. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Minneapolis, MN.

The Vikings are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Vikings Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+200
Vikings	-5.5 -110	45.5 -110	-250

Falcons vs. Vikings Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Vikings Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.35 Units / 34% ROI)
Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 34% ROI)
Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)
Bijan Robinson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.75 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

Sam Darnold has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 46% ROI)
Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Josh Oliver has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.70 Units / 61% ROI)
Sam Darnold has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 39% ROI)
Jalen Nailor has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 68% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 31% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.80 Units / 9% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+1.30 Units / 13% ROI)

Vikings Best Bets:

The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 32% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 36% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.84 Units / 19% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 24% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 5-7 (-2.8 Units / -20.9% ROI).

Falcons are 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -8.79% ROI
Falcons are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
Falcons are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings are 7-4 (+2.6 Units / 19.7% ROI).

Vikings are 10-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 41.75% ROI
Vikings are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
Vikings are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 offenses this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .369.

The Falcons are 5-2 (.714) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 9th-best in NFL. The Vikings have turned the ball over 19 times this season — T-4th-most in NFL.

The Falcons are 10-5 (.667) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Vikings have turned the ball over 53 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Vikings are 8-4 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — T-10th-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 2.0 sacks per game over that time span — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Vikings were 1-8 (.111) when intercepting no passes last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

The Vikings are 2-1 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .366.

The Vikings are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .584.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have run 51.3% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed their opponents to run 53.0% of plays in their territory this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 53.1% of pass attempts with motion this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Falcons have pressured opposing QBs on 20.5% of pass attempts against motion this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Vikings have 13 rushing touchdowns since the 2023 season — T-fewest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 17 rushing TDs since the 2023 season — T-fewest in NFL.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 55.8% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed successful plays on 56.4% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Falcons have run successful plays on just 32.7% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed successful plays on just 36.5% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Falcons have thrown for 3,090 passing yards in 12 games (257.5 YPG) this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 243.3 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons have averaged 0.83 epa per play against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Falcons have averaged 0.55 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Falcons have averaged -1.18 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

The Vikings have run successful plays on 30% of rush attempts in the red zone since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Vikings have gone three and out on 7% of their drives in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Vikings had a third down conversion rate of 12% in Week 13 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 27.7 pass attempts (416 Pass Attempts/15 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.0.

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (15/416) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 8% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Falcons defense have forced three and outs on 31% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Vikings defense allowed successful plays on 29% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Vikings defense has blitzed on 30% of plays in the red zone this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

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