- The Falcons are -3 against the Steelers in Week 1.
- Behind a new head coach and quarterback, Atlanta is favored to win the division.
- I predict the Steelers cover the spread in Week 1.
The Falcons welcome the Steelers to Atlanta for their Week 1 matchup, marking Kirk Cousins’s debut in Atlanta.
Last year, Atlanta finished 7-10 and finished in the bottom half of the division for the fourth straight season. However, the Falcons Over/Under Wins is set at 9.5 this year.
Atlanta will immediately face old head coach Arthur Smith, who Pittsburgh hired as their new offensive coordinator.
He joins a Steelers team that went 10-6 last year but lost in the wild card round.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 game.
Falcons vs. Steelers Odds, Week 1
- Atlanta Falcons Moneyline: -155
- Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline: +130
- Game Spread: Falcons -3
- Game Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction, Week 1
I predict the Steelers cover the spread (+3, -110) against the Falcons in Week 1.
Essentially, this bet comes down to whether you trust the Steelers offense or the Falcons defense more.
And I bet Arthur Smith is licking his chops at showing his old team some business.
Atlanta spent most of the offseason retooling its offense. That makes sense given they ranked 12th in defensive EPA per play compared to 28th on offense last season.
That should give them an edge against bad defenses. The problem in Week 1? They play a Steelers defense that ranked 8th in EPA per play last year.
The Steelers offense doesn’t match up well — Pittsburgh was a better running team, Atlanta led the league in rush EPA per play — but I trust Smith knows how to exploit his old defense.
Atlanta also lost leading sack-getters Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree in the offseason, so I question how they pressure either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields.
Pittsburgh also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2005-06 season, road dogs sitting between +0.5 and +3.5 in Weeks 1-8 are 56.9% ATS.
When the favorite missed the postseason the previous year, the dogs are 60% ATS. When the dog made the postseason the previous year, they’re 62.7% ATS.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is also 57-31-3 ATS as an underdog in his career.
Add in Pittsburgh has received 92% of dollars wagered to cover the spread and 99% of dollars wagered to win outright, and I’ll back them against an overhyped Falcons team.
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