- The Texans’ 2024 preseason win total is set at 9.5 wins at BetMGM.
- From 2022 to 2023, Houston improved by seven wins and reached the playoffs.
- Will Houston’s offseason moves offset their case for a win total decline?
For the 2024 NFL season, the Texans win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Under new head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, Houston drastically improved last year.
They went from three wins to 10 before falling to Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Houston made headlines this offseason by acquiring Stefon Diggs from Buffalo and Joe Mixon from Cincinnati. Currently, the Texans are +1400 in the Super Bowl 59 Futures Odds.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Houston’s 2024 win total.
Texans Win Total Odds
The Texans’ season win total is set at 9.5 with Houston predicted to win 10 or more games.
Houston is -145 to achieve a second consecutive 10-win season for an implied probability of 59.2%.
Conversely, the Texans are +120 to finish with nine or fewer wins, an implied probability of 45.5%.
Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:
- Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
- Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Wins
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Wins
- Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins
Texans Win Total Prediction 2024
LEAN Texans Over 9.5 Wins (-145)
There’s no denying the Texans made some of the best offseason moves in the NFL.
However, two factors render this price too steep to lay with the division holders.
First is that the Texans ran slightly lucky last season. According to pro-football-reference.com, Houston was a 10-7 team that played more like a 9-8 team based on expected record.
Houston also played 10 games last season decided by seven or fewer points. They won seven of these contests.
NFL history tells us those games are 50-50 propositions, so a case for negative regression could be made based on Houston’s record.
Additionally, based on opponent win totals, the Texans face a difficult schedule this year.
Only six other NFL teams play a harder schedule than Houston, who loses a home game this year. Last season, they captured only four wins on the road.
Plus, Houston’s three unique games the rest of the division doesn’t play are against Dallas, Kansas City and Baltimore.
That’s a scary proposition for Houston, who also won four division contests last year, two of which came by four or fewer points.
All that said, it would not surprise me in the least if Houston overcame that schedule and bagged 10 wins again.
Their biggest offseason loss was on the defensive side (Jonathan Grenard) but they immediately replaced him with Danielle Hunter, arguably a better player.
Add Diggs and Mixon to the offense, and this is a team with a high ceiling this year.
I’d take the over if you made me bet it, but it’s a pass at the current pricing.
Texans Over Under Wins, Live Odds
| Week Number | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | 9.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Week 2 | 10.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Week 3 | 11.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Week 4 | 10.5 | -110 | -110 |
Most Wins in Texans History
The Texans’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 12. In 2012, the Houston Texans posted a 12-4 record.
Their second-best win total came in 2018 at 11-5.
Fewest Wins in Texans History
The Texans’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. Houston recorded just two wins in 2005 and 2013, going 2-14.
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