- The Texans’ 2025 win total is set at 9.5 wins at BetMGM.
- Houston won 10 games, but fell in the divisional round for the second straight year.
- I predict the Texans finish under 9.5 wins in 2025, due to a difficult schedule.
For the 2025 NFL season, the Texans win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Despite aggressively recruiting and acquiring personnel in the 2024 offseason, the season saw the same result for the Texans.
Houston finished with 10 wins, good for the AFC South division title. However, the Texans fell in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Houston’s 2025 win total and my Texans win total prediction.
Texans Win Total Odds
The Texans’ season win total is set at 9.5.
Based on current pricing, the Texans are predicted to win nine or fewer games. At -130, Houston’s implied probability to finish under their season win total is 56.5%.
Conversely, the Texans are +110 to finish with 10 or more wins, an implied probability of 47.6%.
Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:
- Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
- Indianapolis Colts: 7.5 Wins
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5 Wins
- Tennessee Titans: 5.5 Wins
Texans Win Total Prediction 2025
Houston Texans Under 9.5 Wins (-130)
Based on Houston’s lackluster offensive metrics in 2024 and their difficult schedule this season, I predict the Texans finish Under 9.5 Wins (-130).
There’s a strong correlation, in my estimation, between how one evaluates this total and both the Jaguars Over Under Wins and Titans Over Under Wins.
Given that I’m bullish on both the Jaguars and Titans, there’s a natural expectation that the Texans will finish under this number in 2025.
Houston built their success last season on the heels of a strong defense. A season after finishing 16th in defensive DVOA, Houston jumped to third in 2025, per ftnfantasy.com.
Generally, defense is far more regressive year over year than offense, where Houston experienced a big dropoff in 2024.
In 2023, the Texans ranked 14th in offensive DVOA. Last season, they fell to 26th.
Injuries to key skill players likely played a role in that dropoff, as only seven teams lost more adjusted games on offense to injury.
However, I’m skeptical of Houston’s decision to fire offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik in the offseason.
Even more concerning for Houston? Those rankings last season came against an easy schedule.
Offensively, the Texans faced the sixth-easiest set of defenses. Defensively, they played the 11th-easiest set of offenses.
In 2025, no such cakewalk exists for the Texans, particularly on defense.
Next season, the Texans face eight games against teams 12th or better in offensive DVOA from last season.
If a dropoff comes defensively, there’s a case that Houston experiences negative regression from 2024.
Last year, Houston finished 1.1 wins above expectation thanks to a 4-2 record in games decided by a field goal or less and 6-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less.
Add in four of five division wins came by four or fewer points, and I like the under on Houston’s win total in 2025.
Most Wins in Texans History
The Texans’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 12. In 2012, the Houston Texans posted a 12-4 record.
Their second-best win total came in 2018 at 11-5.
Fewest Wins in Texans History
The Texans’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. Houston recorded just two wins in 2005 and 2013, going 2-14.
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